I’ve been digging into the ‘Yzerplan’, looking at both the current state of the Red Wings and where they might be headed over the next few seasons. Part 1 looked at the current roster, while Part 2 started to lay out a possible road map for the future with a focus on defense and goaltending. Next, we’ll look at the forward group and put it all together.
Forwards
The Red Wings forward group is largely taking shape for next season with a large number of skaters already under contract. There is a lack of star power at the top, which is an area the Wings will have to address if they intend on developing into a contender. Spending efficiency is a bit of a concern, with veterans Dylan Larkin, David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Robby Fabbri all tending toward the highest paid for their relative impacts.
Like we did with the defense, let’s expand the plot to see expected future progression based on typical age curves. The lack of star power still appears to be a problem over the next few seasons. Only Elmer Soderblom is projected to reach a top line impact and we need to be cautious with that projection given it’s only based on his 21 games at the NHL level this season. There are other young players that should improve over the next few seasons as well, but it may only be enough to offset the loss from declining veterans.
The Red Wings need to prioritize finding some forwards that can provide a top line impact. They can also look for opportunities to move out any of their inefficient contracts to open up additional cap space.
What options are at the Red Wings disposal to add to the forward group, particularly at the top end?
Prospect Pool
Once again, the first place to look is the prospect pool, which may provide an addition on a cost efficient ELC. Like with defensemen, if we look at the top 5 forward prospects in the Wings’ system as a group, it can help us understand the likelihood of filling some roster positions through internal growth.
Using prospect projections from Hockey Prospecting, there’s over an 85% chance that the group of Dmitri Buchelnikov, Jonatan Berggren, Kirill Tyutyayev, Marco Kasper, and Dylan James will produce more than one NHLer. There’s roughly a 50% chance the group turns out 3 or more NHLers, which will help feed the forward group with cost efficient players. The trouble is we’re in need of multiple top line talents and the star potential of the group only amounts to just over a 30% chance that we’ll get one from this group. It will be a win if the Wings get one, but it’s probably not wise to bank on it.
Free Agency
The Wings are in need of top end talent, which is hard to come by in free agency. There are opportunities though, as demonstrated by Johnny Gaudreau’s move to Columbus last offseason. There are some high end players with contracts ending over the next few seasons that the Red Wings can keep an eye on.
Based on the model projections, here are a few of the notable UFA forwards for the next 3 offseasons:
- 2023: Michael Bunting, Tomas Tatar, Jordan Staal, Alex Kerfoot, Derek Ryan
- 2024: Austin Matthews, Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen, William Nylander
- 2025: Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Brad Marchand, Carter Verhaeghe, Pavel Buchnevich
Obviously, the lists for 2024 and 2025 will shrink significantly before those groups hit free agency. A closer look highlights a situation with potential for a new team to step in to sign a player. The 2024 group above includes two Maple Leafs and two Hurricanes. In situations where more than one high end player from the same team is headed for free agency in the same offseason, there is potential one becomes a cap casualty. The Toronto and Carolina situations in 2024 are notable and the Wings should position themselves to take advantage.
Trade Winds
As discussed when we looked at defensemen, the trade market is a place to keep an eye on. An acquisition like the Kings made last offseason, acquiring Kevin Fiala from a Wild team that simply didn’t have the cap space to extend him, is just the type of move that could benefit the Red Wings over the next couple of seasons. The Devils acquisition of Timo Meier is another type of situation to look for. A rebuilding team may be willing to give up the top line forward the Wings need if they get a suitable package of future assets in return. The Wings have the future assets, they just need a trade partner with a suitable target.
Draft
I saved the draft for last because it’s a longshot. There’s potential for for a huge win, though. After Monday’s games, the Wings sit 10th last in the league. That’s just bad enough to have a shot at winning the draft lottery and picking first overall this summer. It would be a reversal of fortunes for Detroit, after some poor lottery luck early in the rebuild. The odds are long, but adding Connor Bedard would infuse some star power into the roster for the long term.
Game Plan – Forwards
In order to truly level up to contender status, the Wings need to add to the top of the forward lineup and push the rest of the lineup down. The chance of the prospect system filling the void in the next couple of seasons is slim. There’s a chance that one star may come out of the current prospect pool, but even that may be a stretch. More likely, the prospect pool will feed the roster with players that fit lower down in the lineup and the Red Wings will have to look to external options to upgrade the top end of their roster. With the mostly cost efficient approach taken with the defense and goaltending, the Wings should have enough cap space to chase a few high end free agents.
One possible route to accomplishing this over the next 3 seasons is:
- Graduate 2-3 forward prospects to the NHL level. Perhaps one can fill a second line role, while the others will slot into bottom six roles. While these players won’t move the needle a ton in terms of upgrading the overall forward group, their cost effective ELCs will leave cap space available for other moves.
- Land a high impact free agent F during the 2023 offseason. Michael Bunting is an interesting target that profiles very well in the model and could easily be a cap casualty for the Maple Leafs.
- Land a high impact free agent F during the 2024 offseason. William Nylander and Teuvo Teravainen are second highest impact forwards with their contracts set to expire for their respective teams. An addition like this will be expensive, but it’s needed to add top end talent to the roster. At some point, a top line center is needed. If a player like Elias Lindholm hits the market, the Wings should make a strong pitch.
- Land a high impact free agent F during the 2025 offseason. Re-evaluate the progress of current prospects. If there’s a star player coming out of the system, this may not be required. If not, target a another free agent addition.
- Keep an eye out for potential trade opportunities and take advantage of a strong cap sheet and prospect pipeline to act. If there is an opportunity to consolidate future assets into a higher impact player, take it. Top line impact forwards, particularly centers, are of particular interest. If there’s a move to be made here, it may provide an avenue to acquire a younger player than a UFA signing and could usurp one of the UFA signings suggested above.
- While the moves above take shape, fill the roster openings with high value, short term contracts.
- Look for an opportunity to offload inefficient contracts to free up additional cap space and open roster positions for a more impactful players. Andrew Copp is the prime candidate here, given the length of his contract and the intent to chase high end free agents.
If the Red Wings can pull off a strategy like above for their forwards and we combine it with the results from Part 2 of the series on defense and goaltending, their roster could look something like below going into the 25/26 season.
| Left Wing | Center | Right Wing |
| Michael Bunting (2023 UFA) | Elias Lindholm (2024 UFA) | Mikko Rantanen (2025 UFA) |
| Elmer Soderblom (prospect) | Dylan Larkin | Lucas Raymond |
| UFA / Trade | Marco Kasper (prospect) | UFA / Trade |
| UFA / Trade | UFA / Trade | Jonatan Berggren (prospect) |
| Left Defense | Right Defense | Goaltenders |
| Albert Johansson (prospect) | Brett Pesce (2024 UFA) | Sebastian Cossa (prospect) |
| Jake Walman | Moritz Seider | Ville Husso (extended) |
| Simon Edvinsson (prospect) | UFA / Trade |
The ‘Yzerplan’ is yet to yield results but it has set the foundation for success in the future. The Red Wings have a strong cap sheet and well stocked prospect pipeline. The biggest area of concern is the lack of top end forwards. With their strong foundation, though, they have the means to acquire the pieces they need. The ‘Yzerplan’ is very much still a work in progress and there’s plenty of reason for optimism that it will succeed in bringing the Red Wings back to contender status.
