In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the current state of the Red Wings including their current NHL roster, future cap and roster flexibility and prospect pipeline. With a good understanding of where the Red Wings are currently at, we’ll start laying out a strategy that Steve Yzerman could use to build them back into a contender in Part 2. Today’s focus is on the defense corps and goaltending.
Defensemen
With recent extensions signed by Jake Walman and Olli Maatta, the Red Wings blueline is already taking shape for next season. Ben Chiarot and Moritz Seider are also under contract for the 2023-24 season, while Gustav Lindstrom is a pending RFA. There are some good pieces here with generally reasonable cap hits, but it’s clear there is still improvement required to build a contending caliber blueline. There’s a clear lack top pair defensemen, which is something that will have to be addressed.
If we expand the plot to see expected future progression based on typical age curves, we can start to see how the defense corps can be molded over the next number of seasons. Moritz Seider is only 21 and it’s reasonable to expect significant development in his game over the next few seasons. He may be one of the top pair defensemen the Wings are in need of given another year or two of development, though he may be a better fit as a very strong second pair defensemen on a contending team based on projections from the generic aging curves. Jake Walman is in the later half of his prime and looks like a solid top 4 defensemen through the end of his current deal.
Olli Maatta looks like a fine depth player and possible placeholder while the Wings work on adding a better option, while Ben Chiarot looks like a player the Wings should look to move on from should they find an opportunity to offload his contract and his declining impact. So, while Seider may grow into a larger role, the Wings are still short a couple of top four defensemen for the long term.
What options are at the Red Wings’ disposal to add to the group and build it into a D-corps fit for a contending team?
Prospect Pool
The prospect pool is the first place to look. It’s a source that may provide young, improving players to fill open roster positions, which can be extremely valuable as source of high value contracts with players on ELCs.
The Wings have a number of quality defense prospects that may be able to fill a top four position within the next few years. Their top 5 D prospects are all left shot defensemen and, if we consider them as a group, there’s a decent chance they can fill out the left side of the D-corps over the next few seasons.
Using prospect projections from Hockey Prospecting, there’s roughly a 90% chance that the group of Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson, Jared McIsaac, William Wallinder and Tnias Mathurin will produce more than one NHLer. It’s actually more likely than not that the group turns out 3 or more NHLers, which is more than we need to fill out the left side of the Red Wings defense corps. Star potential isn’t as strong, but is within the realm of possibility that the group will turn out a star.
Free Agency
The prospect pool looks promising as a source to fill the roster positions we need on the left side, so let’s turn our attention to the right side. Moritz Seider is obviously expected to be a staple in the top 4 for the foreseeable future, but it’s not immediately clear how we’ll fill the other two RD spots. The prospect pool doesn’t have a lot of options here, so it’s time to look outside the organization.
The Wings need another top four defenseman and, ideally, will find a player capable of playing a top pair role. Free agency is often an expensive option, particularly for elite players, but it gives us an option when the solution isn’t available internally. The selection of suitably skilled defensemen to hit the market will likely be slim since teams prioritize locking them up long term, but it’s likely there will be a few. Dougie Hamilton’s move to New Jersey in 2021 is a prime example of what may be possible if the team can be patient and wait for the right opportunity.
Based on the model projections, the best option available in the 2023 UFA class is Ryan Graves. He’s quietly been very good for the Devils for the past couple of seasons and could be a good target, although he’s another left shot. While the 2024 UFA class will obviously shrink significantly over the next year, it’s currently headlined by Matt Grzelyk, Gustav Forsling, Devon Toews, and Brett Pesce. Grzelyk and Pesce are both right side defensemen, so waiting for 2024 to go after a big fish may be the best plan at the moment.
Trade Winds
The trade market is the other external option and it would be wise to keep an eye on the rumor mill and the rosters of cap crunched teams. Players like Jacob Chychrun wanting out of a rebuilding market can provide a massive opportunity, as can cap strapped teams with moves like Kevin Fiala’s relocation to L.A. The Wings are well positioned with both cap space and a loaded prospect pipeline, so they’re in a prime position to jump on similar opportunities that may come up in the future. Remember all those LD prospects? There’s some fodder there to consolidate into a higher impact player if the right opportunity presents itself.
Goaltending
The Red Wings have Ville Husso under contract through the 24/25 season and he looks to be the de facto #1 for the next few seasons. The Wings have a number of promising goaltending prospect in the system as well, headlined by Victor Brattstrom and Sebastian Cossa. Similar to the situation at LD, it’s likely at least one of their current prospect will graduate to the NHL level. The hope at this point would be that there is a future #1 in that group that may be ready to take the starter’s net once Husso’s current contract is up.
Game Plan – Defense & Goaltending
Mortiz Seider and Jake Walman look like solid options for the Red Wings defense corps over the next 3 seasons. They can both be expected to comfortably slot into the top four, with Seider possibly growing into a top pair impact. The Wings need to complement them with a two additional top four (preferably top pair) defensemen, while also keeping the bottom pair stocked with high value deals. Ville Husso is the starter through the end of his current deal, while one of the Wings prospects moves into a backup role with the long term intent to have them take over the starter’s net.
Based on our findings, one possible route to accomplishing this over the next 3 seasons is:
- Graduate 2 LD prospects to the NHL level. Pencil one in the top four and one in the bottom pair. The Wings get two skaters on high value deals added to the roster in the short term and the hope is that the top four skater hits star status and can eventually rise to the top pair. We’ll pencil in Albert Johansson and Simon Edvinsson since they have the highest prospect ratings, but it could be any of the top 5 D prospects we looked at earlier that ultimately steps up.
- Land a high impact free agent RD during the 2024 offseason. Brett Pesce seems like the most likely target since we’ve seen the Hurricanes let players walk if they perceive over-valuation of the player during contract talks. With a need for a high impact defenseman and a strong cap position, the Wings can afford to overpay a bit.
- Keep an eye out for potential trade opportunities and take advantage of a strong cap sheet and prospect pipeline to act. If there is an opportunity to consolidate future assets into a higher impact player, take it. Top pair impact defensemen, particularly for the right side, are of particular interest. A successful trade may eliminate the need for the 2024 FA signing above.
- While the moves above take shape, fill the roster openings with high value, short term contracts. The intent is to find capable players, but not clog up the bottom of the roster with long term deals.
- Look for an opportunity to offload Ben Chiarot to free up additional cap space and open a roster position for a more impactful player. Chiarot is now 31, so the opportunity to do this is likely in the 2023 offseason before age related decline starts to show in his numbers.
- Graduate a goaltending prospect to serve as backup to Ville Husso, with the intent to have him take over as starter at the end of Husso’s current deal. Consider extending Husso depending on development of prospects and moving to a 1A/1B tandem with Husso and a current prospect.
If the Red Wings can pull off a strategy like this, their defense and goaltending could look something like below going into the 25/26 season.
| Left Defense | Right Defense | Goaltenders |
| Albert Johansson (prospect) | Brett Pesce (2024 UFA) | Sebastian Cossa (prospect) |
| Jake Walman | Moritz Seider | Ville Husso (extended) |
| Simon Edvinsson (prospect) | UFA / Trade |
We’ve found some potential to graduate prospects to the NHL level to fill out the longer term roster for the Red Wings and their ELCs will help maximize the team’s cap space. That will be key as we continue and turn our attention to the forward group in the next post.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly. Prospect projections from Hockey Prospecting.
