With the trade deadline approaching, the Nashville Predators sat 10th in the Western Conference. They appeared to be a longshot to make the playoffs and decided to move out a handful of roster players in exchange for futures. It’s a strategy fans of borderline playoff teams might like to see more often, so let’s take a closer look at how the 2023 trade deadline re-shaped the Nashville Predators.
Trotz Time
The Predators announced on February 27 that David Poile was set to retire following the season and that Barry Trotz would be taking his place as GM. The announcement came after the first couple of deadline deals by the Preds, but it would be ignorant to assume that, internally, they didn’t know the change at the top was coming.
There’s some important context here, since the timing of the announcement quashed the typical pressure that an NHL GM faces to make a push for the playoffs under normal circumstances. In this case, though, Poile no longer had to be concerned with staying competitive and avoiding moves that may reflect poorly on his performance if they don’t work out. It allowed more freedom to make what might be perceived as riskier moves.
Trotz being a well known and respected figure among the Predators’ fanbase added to that flexibility. He’s likely to get the benefit of the doubt in the first few years of his tenure, so now is the time to strip the team of a few win-now assets in order to improve the club’s long term outlook.
Deadline Dealing
The Predators moved out 4 NHL roster players in the days leading up to the trade deadline. Nino Neiderreiter, Tanner Jeannot, Mattias Ekholm, and Mikael Granlund are all now former Predators. The Predators added 9 draft picks, Tyson Barrie, Reid Schaefer,, Cal Foote, and a 6th round pick in those deals. They also sent a 7th round pick to Buffalo in exchange for Rasmus Asplund and made couple of deals with players at the AHL level.
Piling Up Picks
Draft picks were clearly the priority in the trade returns for the Predators. Five of the nine picks they added are in the first two rounds and the picks are spread over the next 3 drafts. If we assume the 2023 1st (EDM) will be a late round pick and the 2025 1st (TBL) is an average first rounder, the Predators probability of success from the picks moved at the deadline looks like this:
The added picks give the Predators roughly an 85% chance of drafting at least 2 NHLers, along with about a 35% chance of landing a star. With just a 6th and 7th kicked out the door, the outgoing picks are worth much less and have only about a 20% chance of drafting at least one NHLer combined.
Nashville’s focus on adding draft picks at the deadline pushes their overall success probability from their next 3 drafts well above the baseline (owning only all their own picks). Barry Trotz will have plenty of opportunity to build his version of the Predators through the draft.
Playoff Odds
Not only did the Predators add a boatload of draft capital at the deadline, they did so without decimating their odds of making the playoffs this season. Here are the team profiles from just prior to the Neiderreiter trade and the post-deadline version.
Despite the loss of four roster players, the Predators roster strength hardly moved, staying right at league average. Ekholm and Barrie are very different style of players, but their overall impact is relatively similar. Barrie’s offensive impact is welcome news for Nashville’s offense and the swap avoids any big swings in the team projection from the loss of Ekholm. With more room on the NHL roster, the Preds also called up Philip Tomasino. While he hasn’t been able to hold a full time NHL roster spot down, he has played enough at the NHL level to gain a solid projection in the model and his addition helps mitigate the loss of the outgoing forward trio.
The Predators recent record suggests they’re not out of the playoff race yet. They’re 3-1-1 since Neiderreiter was dealt and have leapfrogged the Calgary Flames into 9th in the West. The odds are still long this season, but the possibility remains.
Swan Song
The only GM the Predators franchise has known in it’s existence, David Poile made his last trade deadline a masterclass. They remain in the playoff hunt this season, while the table is set for Barry Trotz to build the club into a powerhouse once again.
