The Winnipeg Jets acquired Nino Niederreiter from the Nashville Predators earlier today, sending a 2024 2nd round pick in exchange. Let’s take a closer look at the deal.
The Pieces
Nino Niederreiter
Nino Niederreiter profiles as a second line forward, with a knack for finding the back of the net. More of a finisher than a creator, he sites in the top quartile of NHL forwards this season in 5v5 G/60. His impact has been steadily trending upward this year, pushing into top line territory over the past few weeks. Niederreiter is signed through the end of the 23/24 season with a cap hit of $4.0M.
Picks
The second round pick send to Nashville is Winnipeg’s pick in the 2024 draft. Based on Byron Bader’s work at Hockey Prospecting, there’s roughly a 30% chance to land a future NHLer with a 2nd round pick and only a 3% chance of finding a star.
The Verdict
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets have been faltering at the top of the Central Division of late and find themselves in a pitched battle for both a playoff spot and playoff seeding. With Cole Perfetti out for a couple of months with an upper body injury, their top six forward group looked a bit thin for the stretch drive.
The addition of Niederreiter certainly helps, bringing some additional offense that should help down the stretch. While overall roster strength doesn’t see much change in the model, there is a significant jump in even strength offense.
In addition to the extra offensive punch for the stretch drive, the Jets also get a top six forward at a very reasonable cap hit for the 23/24 season. The impact on team rating is more noticable for next season, as teams are weakened by the loss of pending UFAs in the model.
At the cost of a second round pick, this seems like a tidy piece of business by the Jets. Niederreiter’s net impact is better than Vladimir Tarasenko’s in the model. The Jets gave up less to acquire Neiderreiter than the Rangers did for Tarasenko and Neiderreiter comes with another year on his deal at a very reasonable cap hit.
Nashville Predators
The Predators sit in 10th in the Western Conference, 7 points back of a wild card spot. It’s a long shot they make the playoffs and the reality of their situation seems to have registered with management as they appear to be looking ahead to next season.
One wonders why the Predators chose to move a player with term left on his deal. That is until you look at their depth chart with contract status. They have only a couple of pending free agents at the NHL level and the most notable are RFAs. They don’t have ‘rentals’ available as trade chips this season. Backup Kevin Lankinen is the most notable pending UFA on the roster, while their most notable pending UFA skater is Kiefer Sherwood.
Getting only a 2nd round pick, not even in this year’s draft, seems like bargain bin pricing for Niederreiter. The fact that they couldn’t get more is problematic from a Predator’s perspective.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
