The New York Rangers acquired Vladimir Tarasenko from the St Louis Blues yesterday, along with defenseman Niko Mikkola. The Blues also retained 50% of Tarasenko’s cap hit. In exchange, the Rangers sent Sammy Blais, prospect Hunter Skinner, a conditional 2023 first round pick, and a conditional 2024 1st round pick. Let’s dig into the deal to see how it fits each teams needs.
The Pieces
Vladimir Tarasenko
Vladimir Tarasenko headlines the deal. A pending UFA, Tarasenko’s production at 5v5 this season has been reasonably close to the model projection. Goal scoring is his biggest positive impact. His 5v5 shot rate has been down slightly since his shoulder injury. It’s plausible that the drop is due to his injury history, however age and line mate impacts are equally possible. Defensive impact is a concern, with his 5v5 xGA/60 sitting among the highest 25% among NHL forwards.
Nikko Mikkola
Niko Mikkola has been a staple on the Blues third pair this season, with a projected impact trending as replacement level and is a pending UFA. His offensive contribution is expected to be limited based on the model projection and his actual results this season have been even less. Defensively, he has a higher than average 5v5 xGF/60.
Sammy Blais
Sammy Blais is another pending UFA. After missing the entirety of the 2021/22 season due to injury, he struggled to hold down a regular spot in the Rangers lineup this season. His defensive impact has been good, with a 5v5 xGA/60 that sits near the top 50% of NHL forwards. A lack of offensive production has seen his projected impact drop dramatically this season and he now profiles as a replacement level player.
Prospects & Picks
Hunter Skinner is a 21 year old defenseman who has split time between the Hartford Wolfpack in the AHL and the Jacksonville Icemen in the ECHL this season. Hockey Prospecting‘s model had his NHLer probability at 24% at the end of hid D+3 season, with a 5% star probability.
The Rangers held two 2023 first round picks prior to the trade: their own and the Stars’. The conditional 2023 first round pick included in the deal will be the lowest of those two picks, which looks likely to be a late first round pick at this point.
The 2024 4th round pick will become a 3rd round pick if the Rangers make the playoffs in 2023.
The Teams
New York Rangers
The Rangers have been better at driving play at 5v5 this season than they were last year, however recent performance is trending downward in that regard. Their xGF% is now break even on the season and goaltending is once again emerging as a large driver of their success. Sitting in 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, they’re looking to hold off the Penguins, Capitals, and Islanders in the playoff race.
The long term outlook for the Rangers shows some challenges ahead. They have 80% of next season’s cap already committed, with a large group of pending RFAs in need of new deals headlined by Filip Chytil, Alex Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller. The longer term contracts they have on the books are largely for players in their 30s and, despite the recent rebuild, Hockey Prospecting ranks their prospect pool as 22nd in the NHL.
St Louis Blues
The Blues have been on a downward trajectory since their cup win in 2018/19. A look at their current roster profile gives an sense of just how far they’ve fallen, with most categories sitting well below average. They’ve struggled with expected goal share at 5v5 season and relatively average shooting and goaltending have done nothing to change their outlook. Now roughly 10 points back in the wild card race, it’s a longshot that the Blues can pull into a playoff spot this season.
The Blues’ long term outlook looks very similar to the Rangers. They have a significant number of long term contracts on the books for older players, with roughly 80% of next season’s cap already committed. Their prospect pool is not well stocked either, ranking 25th in Hockey Prospecting’s model. Unlike the Rangers, their expiring contracts are almost exclusively UFAs.
The Verdict
The Rangers acquired the best player in the deal and added some much needed 5v5 offensive impact. Tarasenko’s goal scoring ability has the potential to be a good fit with a playmaker like Artemi Panarin. Mikkola doesn’t really move the needle on the backend, although his addition resulted in Libor Hajek (another replacement level defensemen) being placed on waivers.
The fact that both players headed to the Rangers are pending UFAs was key for the Rangers given their offseason outlook. They may already be in a difficult spot re-signing their RFAs this summer and avoiding adding any future cap hits was important at this stage. The longer term outlook is less rosy. With an already lagging prospect pool, the loss of a 1st round pick in the stacked 2023 draft only exacerbates the issue and strays from a sustainable team building strategy.
For the Blues, getting some assets in return for pending UFA Tarasenko is a win. With Tarasenko previously requesting a trade from the Blues, it seemed highly unlikely that he would re-sign in St Louis. Getting a first round pick in the package was the big win as it will help build up their sub par prospect pool.
Interestingly, the Blues team strength also improved with the trade. Unlike the Rangers, the Blues profile as an above average offensive team but are very poor defensively. The offense versus defense tradeoff in the Tarasenko for Blais swap at forward, as well as moving Mikkola and freeing up a top 6 spot for Robert Bortuzzo combine to result in the overall improvement. While it’s probably too late to make a push this season, there is some danger lurking if the Blues do show improvement down the stretch. If management sees it as reason to keep the current core in place, it could lead to some short-sighted decision making this summer.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
