I last looked at the Carolina Hurricanes during the preseason. They were one of the NHL’s best 5v5 teams last season and they looked ready to replicate that this season. They’ve been on a tear of late, with their loss to the Rangers on Tuesday ending an 11 game win streak and 17 game point streak. Let’s take a look at their performance this season, with data from games played through December 31.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
The Hurricanes have been dominant at 5v5 this season, particularly in controlling 5v5 play. Their 5v5 xGF/60 is among the best in the league while their 5v5 xGA/60 is the best in the NHL. Combined, it’s set them up with a net advantage of roughly an expected goal per 60. Finishing has been their biggest weakness, although at least part of that is due to their style of play that emphasizes shot quantity. Despite injuries to both goalies in their starting tandem, goaltending has been good.
Individual Performance
Martin Necas is having a breakout season. He leads the Hurricanes in 5v5 A/60 and 5v5 P/60. There are signs that it’s sustainable, too. A dramatically improved 5v5 shot rate is behind his goal scoring success and his 5v5 on-ice SH% is also in a normal range at 8.71%. His offensive outburst has not come at the expense of defense either, as he sits well below average in 5v5 on-ice xGA/60. All together, his breakout performance has resulted in a jump into top line territory for his projected impact.
The Hurricanes took advantage of their favorable cap situation during the offseason, adding Brent Burns (and his $8M cap hit) for future considerations. Burns has fit into the Hurricanes defense corps nicely, and we’ve seen his projected impact creep upward with a strong first half of the season.
After the successful offer sheet in 2021 and subsequent eight year extension, no look at the Hurricanes would be complete without a look at Jesperi Kotkaniemi. He’s been reliable defensively this season, sitting among the league leaders in 5v5 on-ice xGA/60. While he’s struggled offensively, some of that is due to some poor on-ice shooting luck. He has a 5v5 on-ice SH% of just 6.28% this season, which is bound to trend upward.
Metropolitan Division Landscape
The Metropolitan Division projections were tightly packed from top to bottom going into the season. The Hurricanes were near the top of the pile and they’ve separated themselves at the top of the division through the first half of the season. The New Jersey Devils are their main competition for the division crown.
Current Roster Profile
The Hurricanes roster profile has improved significantly since the preseason, with a big improvement to their even strength defense rating. Alongside their already strong offensive rating, the Hurricanes are a formidable opponent. If they have a weakness, it’s in goal although Petr Kochetkov is trying to erase that with his recent play.
The Hurricanes have less than $1M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly), which limits their options heading toward the trade deadline. They are about to get Max Paciorretty back from injury though, adding one of the highest 5v5 impact forwards in the NHL to their lineup.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
