My last look at the Montreal Canadiens was late in the offseason. It was clear at the time that the Habs would likely struggle again this season as they start into their rebuild. They hung in the Atlantic Division race for some time but have slipped to the bottom of the division over the past ten games. Let’s take a look at their season so far, with data from games played through December 31.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
The Canadiens did well to stay in the Atlantic Division race through the first 30 games. A look at their key metrics suggests the bottom was due to fall out at some point, which it has over their last ten games. The Habs have been operating with a negative expected goal share at 5v5 through the entire season. Special teams have also been a big problem area, primarily due to a sputtering powerplay.
Their finishing has been better than break even, helping alleviate some of their disadvantage in 5v5 chances. Goaltending was also a big factor early in the season, however it’s cooled off to now sit at break even on the season.
Individual Performance
Cole Caufield has been an offensive catalyst for the Canadiens this season, leading the team in both 5v5 G/60 and 5v5 P/60. His defensive impact still needs to improve to become a high impact player, though. At just 22 years old, there’s still plenty of time for development.
The Canadiens blueline is chalk full of rookie skaters. Kaiden Guhle has stepped into a top four role at age 20. He’s getting a chance to hone his skills against quality NHL players and he’s played well enough to maintain a replacement level projected impact. That bodes well for the future as he has plenty of time for development before he hits his peak seasons.
Now sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic Division, the Canadiens will likely be sellers at the trade deadline. Sean Monahan is a pending UFA and is one of the Habs’ potential trade chips. He hasn’t been able to get back to the level he was at before hip injuries ended two consecutive seasons prematurely, but he’s still a capable NHL center that a contending team could look to for added depth. His $6.375M cap hit makes him more difficult to move though, and some salary retention may be needed in a deal.
Atlantic Division Landscape
After hanging with the playoff hopefuls for roughly 30 games, the Canadiens have fallen off the pace. They now sit in the division cellar, where they are projected to finish the season.
For a team still early in a rebuild, that’s not a bad spot to be as it gives them better odds of a top pick in the 2023 Entry Draft. Their main competition for draft odds from within the Atlantic is the Sabres and Senators who both look likely to finish well ahead of the Canadiens.
Current Roster Profile
The Canadiens roster profile paints the picture of a rebuilding team. They need improvement throughout the roster to bring themselves back into contention. The lack of high end forwards and NHL quality defensemen is apparent. There are some young players on the roster who may grow into those roles, but the current roster is underwhelming.
The Senators have roughly $1.7M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly), although they will likely be sellers. They have only 4 pending UFAs on the roster however, so options for pure deadline rentals are limited. We saw the Habs trade Tyler Toffoli last season with another year left under contract though, so it seems likely they will make more veterans available.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
