I last looked at the Winnipeg Jets just ahead of the preseason. At that time, their roster looked average and their defense corps looked like a weak spot with a need for a number one defensemen. The start of the season has gone much better for the Jets than predicted. Let’s dig into their results to see what’s driving their success, with data from games played through December 31.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
It took the Jets a few games to get rolling, but they’ve been steadily piling up standings points for most of the season. The biggest reason for their success has been the return to Vezina form from Connor Hellebuyck. The Jets team 5v5 GSAx/60 is outstanding at this point in the season.
Strong goaltending has covered up a shaky foundation in expected goals generation though. The Jets have been rolling at close to a 50% xGF% at 5v5, which doesn’t give room for error in the more luck prone areas of finishing and goaltending. Their finishing has been slightly below break even all season as well, putting more pressure on their goaltending. As it stands now, it looks like the Jets will go as far as Connor Hellebuyck can take them this season.
Individual Performance
Connor Hellebuyck has been the backbone of the Jets thus far in the 2022/23 season. He sits 2nd in the NHL in 5v5 GSAx/60 among goaltenders with at least 200 5v5 minutes played. His outstanding play has afforded the Jets some latitude in other areas that would be cause for concern on most other teams.
After being stripped of the captaincy over the offseason, Blake Wheeler has responded with a reasonably strong season. He’s been good offensively, exceeding the projections for 5v5 A/60 and leading the team in that regard. Defensive impact has been a concern once again this season, however, keeping his projected impact to a borderline top line forward.
I noted the need for a top pair defenseman in my preseason look at the Jets. Josh Morrissey has delivered through the first half of the season. He’s been one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL this season, sitting among the league leaders in both 5v5 A/60 and 5v5 P/60. His offensive outburst has seen his projected impact rise rapidly, now pushing toward top pair territory.
Central Division Landscape
The Central Division has been filled with mediocrity through the first half of the season, allowing the Jets to rise to the top on the back of their goaltending. A recent skid has seen them drop out of first place, though, with the Dallas Stars overtaking them in the current standings.
There are some other strong teams lurking as well. The Colorado Avalanche have been decimated by injuries and have yet to hit their stride but are not far back in the standings. The Minnesota Wild are also looking to return to the postseason and sit neck and neck with the Avs. The Jets are projected to fall below both of those teams, but look like they have enough points in the bank to land a playoff spot at the end of the season.
Current Roster Profile
The Jets roster profile hasn’t changed much since the preseason. Their team strength sits just below average, much like their rank across most other areas. It’s the reason the Jets are projected to fall off the pace in the Central Division and they would benefit from some in season roster upgrades.
Nikolaj Ehlers has returned to practice after missing most of the season to date, which will give the Jets a big boost to their forward ranks. The Jets have roughly $1.8M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly), which limits their options for upgrades via the trade market. If they can find some high value contracts on the trade block, they may be able to add a depth forward and a depth defenseman to help bolster both groups.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
