My last look at the Pittsburgh Penguins was in late August, after they were able to re-sign both Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to keep their core in tact for few more seasons. Some cracks in the roster were starting to show, however, and there wasn’t much separation in the Metropolitan Division projections. Sitting in a playoff spot at the Christmas break, are the Penguins set for another run at the Stanley Cup? Let’s take a look at their season so far, with data for games played up to the Christmas break.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
The Penguins hit a rough patch early in the season, going on a 7 game losing streak that set them behind the pack in the Metropolitan Division. Their key metrics didn’t show a glaring reason for the skid, as they controlled 5v5 play and had average goaltending and finishing over much of that stretch. The penalty kill was a bit of a concern and the Penguins have been able to improve there as the season has progressed.
The Penguins have maintained a strong xGF% at 5v5 all season, which puts them on solid footing for success. With their powerplay and penalty kill both trending in the right direction, they appear to be in good shape coming out of the Christmas break.
Individual Performance
Sidney Crosby leads the Penguins in 5v5 G/60 and 5v5 P/60. He’s also maintained an average defensive impact at 5v5. At age 35, it’s not a surprise to see his projected impact declining yet he still looks like a top line forward in the model. Evgeni Malkin is still producing at age 36 as well, keeping in tact the 1-2 punch that we’ve watched dominate the NHL for over a decade.
Kris Letang is the third piece of the Penguins long time core trio and he’s also still performing at a high level. His projection is showing more signs of decline than Crosby and Malkin, but he still looks like a top pair defenseman.
The Penguins defense corps was an area of concern when we looked at the roster ahead of the 2022/23 season. P.O. Joseph has seized the opportunity at the NHL level and has established himself as a regular in the Penguins lineup. He leads the Penguins defensemen in 5v5 P/60. His defensive impact needs some improvement, but he still looks like a top 4 defenseman overall.
Metropolitan Division Landscape
The Metropolitan Division was a tightly packed mess ahead of the 2022/23 season. The picture has become more clear over the first 30 games of the season. The Flyers and Blue Jackets have both been riddled with injuries and have dropped from the pack. The Hurricanes and Devils have established themselves as the frontrunners. The Penguins sit in third spot in the division, with a healthy lead on the next three teams and they look likely to maintain that position.
Current Roster Profile
The first third of the 2022/23 season has seen the Penguins roster profile improve and they now look like an above average team. There are no obvious weaknesses, which is an improvement from the offseason where the defense corps was a concern. The rise of P.O. Joseph as an NHL regular is a big factor there, as well upward trending impacts from the rest of the supporting cast on defense.
The Penguins have roughly $2.7M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly). With no obvious weaknesses to address, using that space to add another top 4 defenseman or a middle six forward would help improve the Penguins’ depth as they eye another run at the Stanley Cup.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
