When I last looked at the Vancouver Canucks, they looked likely to be a factor in the playoff race in the Pacific this season. That was during the preseason, before they crashed out of the gate with a 7 game losing streak to start the 2022/23 campaign. They’ve been steadily recovering since their dreadful start. Can they still make a push for a playoff spot this season? Let’s take a look at their season performance so far, with data up to the Christmas break.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
The 7 game losing streak to open the season was marked by some incredibly poor special teams performance. Their penalty kill was particularly poor and the powerplay also struggled. At 5v5, their performance has has been quite steady over the course of the season. They are giving up nearly half an expected goal more than they generate for themselves at 5v5, which generally is not a recipe for success.
Their goaltending has been near break even for much of the season, but has been trending down over the past few weeks. Finishing has been positive, though, and has helped bridge some of the gap in their 5v5 play.
Individual Performance
Elias Pettersson leads the Canucks in both 5v5 G/60 and 5v5 P/60. He’s outperformed the model projections for offensive output by a significant margin so far this season and also is among the team leaders in 5v5 on-ice xGA/60. Trade rumors have been rampant around the Canucks but Pettersson looks like a core piece that the Canucks can build around. With this season’s performance factoring into the model projection, his projected impact has been trending upward.
On the blueline, the Canucks roster needs some work to push them into contender status. Quinn Hughes is the best piece they have in place already. He leads the Canucks defensemen in 5v5 P/60 this season. His defensive impact has not been good, but it’s been better than most other Canucks defenders. Hughes is still only 23 and looks like a good fit in the top 4 for the long term.
Thatcher Demko has been outstanding for the Canucks over the past few seasons. He’s shown less than we’ve come to expect this season and sits well below the NHL median for GSAx/60. The Canucks will need more from Demko over the second half of the season if they hope to claw their way into the playoff race.
Pacific Division Landscape
The good news for the Canucks is that, while they struggled early this season, so did a number of other Pacific Division teams. That allowed the Canucks to close the gap with the teams in the thick of the playoff race since their season opening losing streak. They’re still projected to finish outside the playoff picture but are close enough that they could make it interesting down the stretch.
Current Roster Profile
The Canucks look like an average team based on their roster profile, with a strong goaltending tandem. Their biggest need is on the blueline, where they don’t have any defensemen that have top pair projected impact. Another top 6 forward would also give them a boost, improving both their overall forward impact and forward depth.
The Canucks have roughly $2.8M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly). Using that space to bolster the blueline would probably give the Canucks the best chance to make a push for the playoffs. With plenty of trade rumors swirling, the possibility of a hockey trade that moves an established forward out also seems like a possibility. If the Canucks can find good value in a trade, it could move the needle further.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
