The Ottawa Senators have had an inauspicious start to the 2022/23 season. After a busy offseason that saw them add players in what looked like an attempt to power out of their rebuild, they went into the Christmas break well back in the wild card race.
My last look at the Senators was late in the offseason. We expected them to struggle this season then, despite their big name offseason acquisitions. They simply didn’t look deep enough to contend and the Atlantic Division is stacked with too many strong teams. But was it really expected to be this bad? Let’s take a closer look at the Senators season, with data for games played up to the Christmas break.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
An early season 7 game losing streak put the Senators behind the 8 ball this season and they’ve struggled to recover in the standings. Their 5v5 play has been more promising than that though, as they’ve held a 5v5 xGF% better than 50% ever since week 2 of the season. That should provide a good foundation for success. Goaltending had been decent as well, with 5v5 goaltending saving slightly more goals than expected. Special teams have also been good, with the powerplay outperforming the penalty kill and trending upward over the past month.
So where has it gone wrong? The Senators 5v5 finishing has been trending downward since week 2 of the season and is now so low it’s obviously dragging the team down. It’s started to level out, but the Senators desperately need it to trend back toward break even. Their 5v5 team shooting percentage of 6.5% is too low to be sustainable in the long term but the damage may already be done.
Individual Performance
Captain Brady Tkachuk leads the Senators offensively with his best season yet. Free agent addition Claude Giroux sits second in 5v5 P/60 behind Tkachuk and leads the team in 5v5 G/60. He hasn’t been bit by the shooting percentage bug afflicting the team, as he is shooting over 17% at 5v5 on the season. While that’s helped him overperformed his goal scoring projection so far, he’s underperforming in 5v5 assist rates.
The Senators’ other big offseason acquisition is a different story. Alex DeBrincat is performing near his projected 5v5 A/60 and has a higher ratio of primary to secondary assists than predicted. However, he embodies the team’s finishing struggles as he’s shooting only 5.33% at 5v5. He’s only shot less than 10% at 5v5 once in his previous 5 NHL seasons so it’s very out of character for him and likely to correct in the long term.
The Senators defense corps is an area that still needs some work if they hope to become contenders. Artem Zub has been a positive on the blueline this year that could be part of that solution and the Senators recently inked him to a 4 year extension. He hasn’t contributed much offensively, but his defensive impact has been noticeable. It’s been good enough to bring his projected net impact up significantly with this season’s data incorporated and he looks like he good fit in the Senators top 4 for the near future.
Atlantic Division Landscape
The trouble for the Senators is that, even if their finishing improves to make them more competitive, they’ve fallen well behind in a stacked Atlantic Division. The Sens were at the bottom of the division at the Christmas break and have a big hole to climb out of if they hope to get back into the playoff race this season.
The Bruins, Maple Leafs and Lightning are all having good seasons and look likely to maintain their >0.600 point percentages through the remainder of the season. The Red Wings appear to be taking another step forward and have kept themselves in the playoff race. And while the Panthers have struggled this season, they still have one of the strongest team profiles in the model which makes them a likely candidate to improve over the remainder of the season. Considering the strength around the Atlantic Division, it may already be too late for the Senators this season.
Current Roster Profile
The Senators roster profile has improved since the offseason, but it still looks like a work in progress. Their outlook for their forward group has improved with this season’s data but they are still missing a couple of pieces in their top 6. The defense is also short on high end talent, with no skaters profiling as top pair defensemen in the model.
The Senators have roughly $3.3M in projected deadline cap space (via CapFriendly). While they can use it to make an upgrade before the trade deadline, it’s probably not going to be enough to push them into the playoffs this season. The Sens would probably be better off as sellers at the deadline, moving a couple of pending UFAs to continue to stock their prospect cupboards.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
