The New York Rangers got off to a good start this season but have now settled in with the group of teams that look likely to compete for a wildcard playoff berth. After a trip to the Eastern Conference Final last season, it certainly seems like a disappointing position through a third of the 22/23 regular season. Can the Rangers build on their recent win streak to prove they belong as contenders?
My last look at the New York Rangers was in late August, when I looked at their most notable offseason moves and their roster profile heading into the 2022-2023 season. The Rangers entered the season with a somewhat underwhelming roster, yet the key pieces that made them successful last season still remain. If you missed it, or simply want a refresher, you can find it here. Now, let’s take a look at their performance through the first third of the 22/23 regular season to see how the season is actually panning out.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
The Rangers struggled with 5v5 expected goal share last season and it was part of the reason for their modest projection going into the season. Early this year, it looked as though they had made some strides to correcting it, however old habits appear to have returned over the past month. At the 20 game mark, the Rangers were generating roughly 0.5 xG/60 more than they gave up. Over the last month, that advantage has slipped away and they’re approaching a 50% 5v5 expected goal share on the season.
Goaltending and the powerplay were key areas that helped the Rangers cover up their 5v5 struggles last season. Neither has been as strong as it was a year ago, and their current position in the standings reflects that. In fact, it’s strong 5v5 finishing that seems to have propelled them to a 7 game win streak through games played December 17.
Individual Performance
The Rangers have been led offensively this season by veteran Artemi Panarin and youngster Filip Chytil. Panarin leads the team in 5v5 P/60 while Chytil is a close second. Panarin’s performance is near expected and his projected impact continues to be that of a legitimate top line forward. Meanwhile, Chytil is off to a great start to the 22/23 campaign as he’s outperformed the projections by a significant margin so far. While it’s likely his results will trend toward the projections over time, it’s also encouraging to see his projected impact rising as we should still expect to see some development out of the 23 year old.
The ‘Kid Line’ was a force for the Rangers in last year’s playoffs and their continued development will be key to the Rangers contention hopes both this year and into the future. While Chytil’s projected impact has jumped up to a top six impact, the same can’t be said for Alex Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko who both continue to profile as bottom six forwards in the model. The good news is that they’ve both shown development in their projected impact through the first third of the season and they both still have a few seasons of further development ahead.
On defense, Adam Fox has bounced back after a down year last season and looks more like the player that won the Norris two seasons ago. He’s outperforming the model projections significantly so far, although his projected impact is not improving in the model like we might expect. The cause seems to be his 5v5 IPP, which is projected to be a full 10% higher than the next highest defensemen in the model. Essentially, the model sees that the team is not generating offense while Fox is on the ice unless he is directly involved in the scoring which is holding down his projected 5v5 on-ice GF/60.
Metropolitan Division Landscape
The Rangers outlook has improved somewhat since the season preview, although they still look likely to be left on the outside of the playoff picture. The Islanders and Capitals look like their main competition in the Metropolitan as they battle for a wildcard berth. The model continues to see weakness in the Rangers 5v5 game and their weaker projected roster strength makes them look like longshots. With a number of strong teams in the Atlantic as well, the Rangers have their work cut out for them to fight their way into a playoff berth.
Current Roster Profile
The Rangers rank at or below average across the board in their current roster profile. Their even strength defense has improved slightly since our offseason profile and even strength offense continues to be a big weakness. They lack the higher end forwards required to drive play throughout the lineup.
The Rangers results this season look like they’ve been generous given the team’s current roster profile. While their early play suggested that some of last season’s poor metrics were a thing of the past, those bad habits are creeping back into their metrics with their recent play. The Rangers have roughly $7.2M in deadline cap space (via CapFriendly), though, so they have some resources at their disposal to improve the team in season.
How can the Rangers use their deadline cap space to maximize their roster as they aim to return to the playoffs? Check back tomorrow for a New York Rangers Roster Roadmap, where we’ll dig into that question.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
