My last check-in on the Toronto Maple Leafs was back in August. They were nearly finished their offseason business at the time, although Rasmus Sandin remained an unsigned RFA. Sandin signed a new deal during training camp and the Leafs also added Zach Aston-Reese after a PTO during camp. The Leafs looked like a contender back in August. Let’s take a look at how the first quarter season has unfolded since then.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Performance
The Maple Leafs got off to a rocky start to the season, at least by their standards. A rough western road trip had rumors of change swirling just 10 games into the season. No big moves materialized, though, which is probably a good thing given the resurgence since then.
The Leafs struggled to finish early in the season, which was a big factor in their early struggles. Finishing a goal below expected per 60 is highly unsustainable, though, and the Leafs were wise to stay the course since their underlying numbers suggested they should be finding success. A marked improvement in finishing, along with special teams stabilizing with a favorable goal differential, has righted the ship.
Top Performers
Mitch Marner took more than his fair share of heat during the Maple Leafs slump. He’s responded by setting a new franchise record with his (active) 19 game point streak. Marner was projected to be one of the top fowards in the NHL this season and his performance has been near that expectation.
Timothy Liljegren started the season injured and just crossed the 200 5v5 minute mark this week. He’s been outstanding since returning to the lineup and his projected impact sees a massive jump from a borderline 2nd pair D to a borderline 3rd pair D. He’s had a good defensive impact, while outpacing projected G/60 and A1/60 rates at 5v5, and helped the Leafs shake their early season form.
Goaltending was a big question mark coming into the season after a complete revamp at the position over the summer. Both goaltenders have been excellent so far, with Ilya Samsonov seeing slightly more action. Samsonov sat 3rd in the NHL in 5v5 GSAx/60 after Saturday’s games.
2022 Offseason Moves – Hindsight Edition
The Leafs made big changes in goal over the summer and it’s paying early dividends. We’ve already looked at Ilya Samsonov above. Matt Murray has been stellar as well and also sits above the 75th percentile in 5v5 GSAx/60.
The Leafs signed Mark Giordano to a 2 year deal with a big hometown discount. The veteran defenseman has been leaned on through some injuries to the defense corps and has been a key contributor on the back end.
2022-2023 Roster Profile Updates
The Maple Leafs roster profile looks much the same as it did in mid-August, with goaltending being the most significant change. The strong results from Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray have improved the Leafs’ ES Goalies ranking up near league average. They now have no major weaknesses in their roster and look like a legitimate contender.
Central Division Landscape
The Maple Leafs sit in 2nd place in the Atlantic in the current standings and the projection suggests they’ll hold onto that position at the end of the season. The Atlantic is a tough division at the top, however, and there will be plenty of competition. The Bruins and Panthers team strength both rank higher than the Leafs in the model and will be a tough out come playoff time. The Lightning are still very much in the playoff mix, as are the building Red Wings.
For a more detailed look at the Metropolitan Division, check out yesterday’s Atlantic Division Snapshot.
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Free Preview! The Toronto Maple Leafs team page has been unlocked as a free preview this week. Check it out here.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
