I last checked in on the Arizona Coyotes in mid August, with most of the 2022 offseason in the rear view mirror. It looked like another long season was ahead in the desert as the Coyotes appeared intent on snagging a high draft pick in the loaded 2023 draft to help their rebuild. The first quarter of the season has gone almost too well for the Coyotes if the main objective this season is landing as a high in the 2023 draft as possible. Let’s take a closer look at their season to date.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Performance
The Coyotes are off to a much better start to the 22/23 season than they achieved a year ago. In 21/22, they didn’t register their first win until 12 games into the season. This year, they’ve managed to stay in touch with the teams chasing playoff positions through the first quarter.
A look under the hood doesn’t paint such a rosy picture however. The Coyotes have managed to pick up standings points despite an abysmal 5v5 game that’s seen them settle in with a deficit of roughly 1 xG/60. A positive differential in special teams performance has helped bridge that 5v5 gap but it’s hard to see how they can continue to find success without improving their 5v5 game.
Finishing and goaltending haven’t helped the Coyotes cause so far either. They started the year extremely cold on both fronts and recent improvement has seen them trend near break even on the season in both areas. While we ultimately expect some regression toward the mean in both categories, the fact the Coyotes have put together as good a record as they have thus far while underperforming here makes their record seem like even more of a façade.
Top Performers
Journeyman Nick Bjugstad seems to have found a resurgence this season. He’s had an opportunity to play a larger role with the Coyotes this season than he’s had with other teams in recent seasons and he’s made the most of it. He’s outperforming the model projection for both goal and primary assist rate at 5v5 by a significant margin. It may have come at the cost of some defensive impact, which is something to keep an eye on as the season goes on. Overall, his 22/23 season performance has helped bring his projected impact up to a capable bottom six forward from the replacement level forward he was projected to be at the start of the year.
The Coyotes plucked Juuso Valimaki off waivers from the Calgary Flames at the start of the season. Valimaki never seemed to be able to crack the NHL lineup in Calgary and the move to the desert has afforded him much more opportunity. He was thrust into a top four role immediately after moving to Arizona and has looked every bit the part so far. He’s had a strong defensive impact that is tops among the Coyotes regular defensemen and is in the top quartile for NHL D-men. The points haven’t materialized at 5v5 yet, but his projected offensive impact suggests that it should be just a matter of time.
Karel Vejmelka has been good in the Coyotes crease. He struggled out of the gate and we saw his projected impact dip slightly as the 22/23 season data was first incorporated. He seems to have found a rhythm now, however, and he now sits at the 75th percentile for NHL goaltenders in GSAx/60. That’s good enough to rank as an average NHL starter and we should start to see his projected impact trend upward if he can maintain his recent form.
2022 Offseason Moves – Hindsight Edition
The Coyotes acquired Zack Kassian from the Edmonton Oilers on draft weekend. Kassian has only gotten into 10 games so far this season and has some underwhelming numbers to show for it, even relative to his projection. But this trade was about the draft picks for the Coyotes and they were able to move up three spots in the first round and add a couple of additional picks to take on Kassian’s $3.2M cap hit.
The Coyotes locked up RFA Lawson Couse to a 5 year deal over the summer as well. He was projected to have a middle six impact coming into this season and the Coyotes would undoubtedly like to see that trend upward to start the 5 year deal off on the right foot. Crouse’s performance has been okay, but not good enough to push his projected impact up, largely due to a much weaker than projected defensive impact.
2022-2023 Roster Profile Updates
With a majority of players now over the 200 5v5 minute mark on the season, we’re starting to see the team profiles shift with updated player projections. The Coyotes rough start in terms of underlying numbers has seen them drop slightly in their team rating since our mid August check-in. One area that has improved is D-men Impact, thanks to the addition of Juuso Valimaki.
Central Division Landscape
The Coyotes were one of two teams in the Central Division that clearly set out to tank this season. So far, the Blackhawks have done a better job of that and occupy the division basement. The Coyotes are only one point up on them though, and their underlying numbers suggest we’ll see their current standings point pace taper off as the season wears on.
For a more detailed look at the Metropolitan Division, check out yesterday’s Central Division Snapshot.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
