Today we’re checking in on the Central Division. In our last Central Division Snapshot in late October, there were still plenty of early season trends playing out. With a quarter of the season now in the books, we have a better idea of which of those early trends will fade away and which may stick through the season.
Central Division Projected Standings
The Colorado Avalanche maintain their hold on top spot in the Central Division projected standings. The Dallas Stars are off to a great start and look like the most legitimate challenger at the quarter mark of the season. Chicago’s tank strategy has the Blackhawks in the division cellar, while the Coyotes have been better than expected so far. In the middle, it’s a tight group of teams with mediocre results battling for position.
1 – Colorado Avalanche
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Avalanche hang on to top spot in the projected standings in this snapshot. Their 5v5 game is still not what we expected based on recent season, as they still have a 5v5 expected goal deficit on the season. Injuries have certainly played a role and, if the Avs can hang in the race until they get healthy, they’ll be in a strong position to push for top seed in the Central again this season. The Avs goaltending has helped them on that front with both Alexandar Georgiev and Pavel Francouz having excellent seasons thus far.
The Avs acquisition of Alexandar Georgiev looks better and better as the season progresses. Georgiev continues to post strong results this season and is now the 5v5 GSAx/60 leader across the entire NHL. He’s taken the opportunity to be a starter by the reigns and has been a big part of keeping the Avalanche in the Central Division race through the first quarter of the season.
2 – Dallas Stars
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Stars have continued their hot start since our previous Central Division Snapshot and they continue to ascend the Central Division projected standings. Their 5v5 expected goal share advantage has waned, however, which is concerning. Finishing has been exemplary through the first quarter season and it’s helped them achieve success early this season. Their 10.39% 5v5 shooting percentage leads the league and is also likely not fully sustainable so finding the 5v5 game that saw them win the expected goal battle through the first couple of weeks of the season would help their chances of challenging for the division title.
The Stars top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski are having another great season. At age 38, Pavelski’s performance may be the most impressive as he continues to defy aging curves. He’s outperformed offensive projections so far this season while keeping chances against to a minimum and we see his projected impact trending up with this year’s performance incorporated.
3 – Minnesota Wild
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Wild got off to a rough start this season thanks, in large part, to their goaltending. At our last snapshot, they seemed to be finding their footing and that trend has continued in the month or so since. They Wild are holding their own in 5v5 expected goal share and their results have improved with goaltending trending toward more sustainable levels.
The Wild decided to bank on Marc-Andre Fleury this past offseason. So far, it’s hasn’t payed off. While Fleury’s performance has stabilized since his early season struggles, his numbers on the season are still sub par. The Wild lead the pack of teams hunting for the third divisional playoff berth and they’ll need decent goaltending the rest of the way if they hope to hold that position at the end of the season.
4 – Nashville Predators
Change in Division Rank: -2
In our last snapshot, the Predators looked like they were victims of a bit of hard luck with their results trailing their underlying numbers. Since then, their 5v5 expected goal shar has dwindled though. Their finishing has also failed to rebound despite trending at a seemingly unsustainably low level.
The Predators’ stars haven’t been able to repeat the success they found last season through the first quarter of 22/23. Roman Josi is included in that group as we’ve seen his projected impact trend downward after he garnered plenty of well earned Norris Trophy consideration last season. His 2.04% 5v5 shooting percentage is likely to trend upward as the season wears on but his defensive impact also needs to see improvement to get back we expected coming into the season.
5 – Winnipeg Jets
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Jets have found good results through the first quarter of the season and they move up a spot in the projected standings since our last snapshot. There are some concerning trends below the surface, however, as they’ve put wins on the board despite generally losing the expected goal battle. Finishing has also been sub par but a return to all-world caliber goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck has helped smooth over their underlying issues.
Blake Wheeler’s results highlight the issues that encompass many of the Jets’ skaters. He’s put up decent offensive numbers, yet his defensive impact is a big concern. This was a common theme last season as well and it’s concerning that the coaching change made over the offseason doesn’t seem to have found any meaningful improvement there.
6 – St Louis Blues
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Blues have been hot and cold this season, at least in terms of their results. They followed an 8 game regulation losing streak with a 7 game win streak, keeping them squarely in the group of mediocre Central Division teams. So which streak is more representative of the Blues? Maybe neither. Their expected goal share at 5v5 is slightly below break even, which suggests they aren’t a powerhouse. Goaltending and finishing both struggled through their losing streak at a pace that wasn’t sustainable in the long run either, though, so they look like they deserve to be in the group of average teams hunting for playoff berths.
The Blues’ young stars are off to slow starts this season. Robert Thomas has been productive, but not to the level we expected based on the model projections. Defense has also been an issue, which has been common throughout the lineup.
7 – Arizona Coyotes
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Coyotes have been on a bit of a hot streak since our last Central Division Snapshot and have pulled themselves back toward the playoff race. They still have some atrocious underlying numbers, but some strong goaltending has pulled their season long goaltending results back to near break even. They’ve also been good on special teams which has helped make up some of the 5v5 gaps in their game.
The Coyotes plucked Juuso Valimaki off waivers and immediately gave him an opportunity to play at the NHL level. He’s grabbed the opportunity by the horns and looks like a legitimate NHLer through 16 games this season. The points haven’t materialized yet, but his defensive impact has been solid and we see his projected impact holding steady as a second pair defender with this season’s data incorporated.
8 – Chicago Blackhawks
Change in Division Rank: -1
In our last Central Division Snapshot, the Blackhawks appeared to be a façade as they sat in a playoff position despite some terrible underlying numbers. Those underlying numbers have only gotten worse since then and the Blackhawks have plummeted to the division basement in both the current and projected standings as the façade has crumbled.
Last time, we noted Jonathan Toews was off to a good start which could prove beneficial to the Blackhawks as they look to offload veterans as their tank season continues. Toews’ performance has fallen off dramatically since then, however, mirroring the trajectory of the team’s performance. Offensively, he’s producing very near his projected rates but his defensive impact has fallen off sharply.
More Plots
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Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
