We last looked in on the Central Division on October 16. At the time, we had a very small sample of games to look at this season. Two weeks later, we have a lot more to work with yet it’s still not enough to completely avoid hot and cold streaks.
The team projections are built up from player projections, which use a minimum of 200 5v5 minutes per season. Across the NHL, 31 goalies and 1 skater are now over that mark. So, while we’re getting a better idea of long term trends, there’s still room for early puck luck to mask long term indicators. So, which teams’ early results are for real and which teams are masquerading as something they aren’t?
Central Division Projected Standings
The Colorado Avalanche have risen to the top of the projected Central Division standings despite a mediocre start to the season. In part that’s due to lackluster results from the Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild as they’ve fallen off since our last check-in. The Dallas Stars have made a push, currently sitting atop the division with 11 points in 9 games and have broken into the top 3. Let’s take a closer look at each team, in order of the projected standings.
1 – Colorado Avalanche
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Avalanche move up to the top spot in the projected standings but it may say more about the competition than the Avs themselves. Colorado seems to have a bit of a Stanley Cup hangover as they’re off to a sluggish start by their standards. Goaltending may have been the biggest question mark heading into the season, but it’s been excellent so far. Poor finishing and a negative expected goal share at 5v5 are more responsible for the mediocre results. While finishing will likely improve with a larger sample size, the expected goal share is a concern. It’s primarily 5v5 xGA/60 that’s trending much higher than the projection and the Avs would benefit from some defensive improvement.
The Avalanche brought in Alexandar Georgiev as a lower cost option in goal this summer. Georgiev has been excellent so far, holding the fort for the Avs while they work on finding their ‘A’ game.
2 – Nashville Predators
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Predators got off to a good start in their global series games, but it’s been another story in North America. The Preds are 1-5-1 since returning from overseas, including a 1-3-1 record since our last snapshot. Their underlying metrics suggest they’ve been better than their record indicates, as they’ve maintained a positive 5v5 expected goal share on the season. Finishing has increasingly become an issue, as the Predators have struggled to convert their chances. It’s an area that’s more prone to luck in small sample sizes, though, so the season long outlook for Nashville still looks reasonably strong.
One player who hasn’t struggle to finish this season is Ryan Johansen. He has 3 goals at 5v5 on 11 shots, good for a 27% shooting percentage.
3 – Dallas Stars
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Stars currently lead the Central Division with 11 points in 9 games played. They’re playing higher event hockey than the model projection suggests, which may be due to the coaching change made this past offseason. All told, they’ve generated an positive expected goal share at 5v5 so far which bodes well if they can sustain it. Goaltending has also been a big strength through the first few weeks of the season as Jake Oettinger picked up where he left off in last year’s postseason. The biggest concern for the Stars at this stage is the health of Oettinger and Miro Heiskanen. Oettinger left Saturday’s game while Heiskanen didn’t dress. If either miss significant time, the Stars will need their depth players to step up.
Jake Oettinger nearly stole the Stars first round playoff series against the Flames last spring and he doesn’t seem to have missed a beat after the summer. He’s been a wall in the Stars’ net this season and his projected impact is trending upward based on his strong showing in the early season.
4 – St Louis Blues
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Blues has only played one game when we took our last Central Division snapshot. They’re up to 7 games played now, with a 3-4-0 record to show for it. There’s a troubling trend developing in their 5v5 expected goal rates, as they’ve lost the expected goal battle so far. While they’re playing higher event hockey than the projections suggest, the negative expected goal share is seen in the projections. It’s an area the Blues should look to improve if they hope to be in the thick of the playoff race later in the season.
Many of the Blues skaters have struggled at 5v5 through their first 7 games. Vladimir Tarasenko is an exception. He’s found the scoresheet regularly and been a factor offensively while keeping opposition chances in check.
5 – Minnesota Wild
Change in Division Rank: -4
The Wild seem to have found their footing after a rough start to the season as they’ve picked up points in four of their last five games. Goaltending has been trending upward after a it was a major issue in their first few games but it still has room for improvement. Their 5v5 expected goal share is concerning. They’re allowing more expected goals against than they are generating themselves which will be an even bigger problem if they continue to get below break even goaltending and finishing.
Jared Spurgeon has set the stage for another strong season on the Wild’s blueline with his performance over the first three weeks of the season. He’s had a good defensive impact and a very strong offensive impact to start the 22/23 campaign.
6 – Winnipeg Jets
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Jets are off to a strong start under new head coach Rick Bowness. They’re off to a 5-3-0 start, which is good enough to sit second in the current Central Division standings. Looking under the hood, however, suggest that record may be flattering. The Jets have lost the 5v5 expected goal battle so far this season by a larger margin than projected. They’ve lost more ground on special teams over the past couple of weeks. Strong goaltending has been enough to cover up their other issues so far but the Jets would help their chances immensely with some improvement outside the crease.
Mark Scheifele has had a good start to the season, tallying 5 goals at 5v5 through the Jets’ first 8 games. His defensive impact has been near average, which is better than about half the Jets’ skaters.
7 – Chicago Blackhawks
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Blackhawks have been a surprise to open the season. After an offseason that looked like a concerted effort to tank, Chicago has opened the season with a 4-3-2 record and sit in a Central Division playoff position at the moment. It’s likely a façade, as their expected goal differential at 5v5 has become increasingly negative through the first three weeks of the season while finishing and goaltending look unlikely to be able to make up the difference.
There has been plenty of trade speculating around Patrick Kane after the Blackhawks offseason, yet it’s Jonathan Toews that is off to a stronger start to the season. Toews could also be on his way out of the Windy City if the Blackhawks continue their teardown and he agrees to waive his no trade clause. His early season performance suggests there could be plenty of interested suitors.
8 – Arizona Coyotes
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Coyotes are early favorites in the race for top draft lottery odds based on their underlying metrics. They have somehow stumbled out to a 2-4-1 record despite posting a 30.7% expected goals share through their first 7 games. It’s a massive jump to the 31st ranked Anaheim Ducks who sit nearly 10% higher at 39.3 xGF% and it will take a gargantuan finishing/shooting/special teams effort to continue at their current point percentage pace unless they can tilt the ice back their way at least a little.
The Coyotes had their home opener on Friday night, where Christian Fischer scored the first ever NHL goal at Mullett Arena. Fischer is off to a nice start to the season, in stark contrast to the Coyotes team results.
More Plots
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Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
