In the previous Central Division Snapshot, we looked at how the division shaped up as the start of the regular season approached. With a few regular season contests now in the books, let’s check in to see how the landscape has changed over the first week of the season.
A note on small sample sizes before we jump in: the player projections from the model use a minimum of 200 5v5 minutes in a season to ensure sample sizes are large enough to identify longer term trends. We obviously aren’t there yet, as Erik Karlsson leads all skaters with 71 5v5 minutes and Juuse Saros leads goaltenders with 133 5v5 minutes. Extreme results from the first week of the season are likely not sustainable in the long term given the small sample size. So get excited (or panic) about your favorite team’s results through the first week, but temper that enthusiasm and avoid jumping to conclusions about season long expectations just yet.
Central Division Projected Standings
The Dallas Stars sit atop the week 1 standings after a 2-0-0 start to the season and the Minnesota Wild continue to lead the projected standings. Let’s take a look at each team’s first week in order of the projected standings.
1 – Minnesota Wild
Change in Projected Standings Points: -3
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Wild stumbled out of the gate with an 0-2-0 record in week 1 after losses to the Rangers and Kings. They were much better than their record suggests, however, as they generally controlled play at 5v5, had strong finishing and held the edge with special teams. Goaltending was an issue though, and a big enough one undo their strong performance in other areas.
Matt Boldy is following up a terrific rookie campaign with a hot start to his sophomore season. He has 4 points through the Wild’s first 2 games, including 2 goals and 1 assist at 5v5.
2 – Nashville Predators
Change in Projected Standings Points: -1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Predators are off to a 2-2-0 start to the season. They followed up their sweep of their global series games against the Sharks with two losses in a home-and-home with the Stars. Strong goaltending has backstopped their 5v5 play, while their powerplay is off to a cool start.
Newcomer Nino Niederreiter has made his presence felt early with a hot hand to start the season. His 4 goals (3 at 5v5) leads the Preds through their first 4 games.
3 – Colorado Avalanche
Change in Projected Standings Points: -1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Avalanche started the season with a back-to-back against the Blackhawks at home followed by the Flames in Calgary. Special teams production (for and against) was a factor through the first couple of games, along with poor finishing and strong goaltending at 5v5.
Nathan MacKinnon has shown what will make him the highest paid player in the NHL when his extension kicks in next season, with strong impacts through the first two games.
4 – St Louis Blues
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Blues played their first game of the 22/23 campaign on Saturday, picking up a 5-2 win over the Blue Jackets. Stellar finishing at 5v5 and a perfect penalty kill propelled them to the victory.
Brayden Schenn was in on two of the Blues goals, both at 5v5.
5 – Dallas Stars
Change in Projected Standings Points: -1
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Stars swept a home-and-home with the Predators to start the season and sit with a 2-0-0 record after week 1. Expected goal share at 5v5 was relatively even and it was strong finishing and goaltending from the Stars making the difference at even strength. They also had an edge on special teams.
Jason Robertson didn’t disappoint after signing a new deal during training camp. He had 3 points at 5v5 in the 2 games against the Preds, tying him for the team lead with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski.
6 – Winnipeg Jets
Change in Projected Standings Points: -10
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Jets are 1-0-0 after a 4-1 win over the New York Rangers on Friday. An outstanding performance from Connor Hellebuyck and special teams were enough to overcome a slight deficit in 5v5 expected goal share and poor finishing.
Sam Gagner picked up a goal in his Jets debut.
7 – Chicago Blackhawks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Blackhawks are 1-2-0 through the first week of the season. Goaltending has been the standout at the team level thus far, as the Hawks have put up a significant deficit in expected goal share and have struggled to finish.
Alex Stalock was outstanding in his only appearance of the season so far, holding the Golden Knights to a single goal in a 1-0 loss.
8 – Arizona Coyotes
Change in Projected Standings Points: -9
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Coyotes put in an early claim as favorites in the 22/23 tank battle. Their team results were atrocious through their first two games, although they faced two strong teams in the Penguins and Bruins.
With just one 5v5 goal to the Coyotes credit through 2 games, we have to squint hard to find a positive performance. Nick Bjugstad picked up an assist on the aforementioned 5v5 goal.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse team plots for all 32 teams? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
