The Florida Panthers were a force during the regular season last year. Can they translate that success into a deep playoff run this season?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Panthers were a regular season juggernaut in the 21/22 season. They were undefeated in regulation through their first 11 games and didn’t slow much from there on their way to the President’s Trophy. They were the frontrunners in the Atlantic for nearly the entire season, propelled by a lethal offensive attack. They had the top expected and actual goals for rates at 5v5 in the NHL, supported by average defensive and goaltending results. Their attack was led by their stars, but their depth often added the knockout blow as their top10 forwards and top 5 defensemen in 5v5 points rate were at or above the 75th percentile.
Playoffs
The Panthers got off to a rocky start to the playoffs. Facing the Capitals in the first round, they fell behind 1-0 and 2-1 in the series before finding their game. Improved results at 5v5 were enough to tip the scales in Florida’s favor in 6 games, despite an ice cold powerplay.
Round 2 brought the Battle of Florida to the postseason for the second straight season. The Panthers outplayed the rival Lightning at 5v5 for much of the series, however they struggled to finish their chances against a red hot Andrei Vasilevskiy. Their powerplay continued to struggle mightily as well, and the Panthers fell in 6 games.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
After what appeared to be a very successful season, it would certainly have been reasonable for the Panthers to stay the course for the 22/23 season. When Matthew Tkachuk became available, however, that theory flew out the window. The Panthers engaged with the Flames to complete what may be the biggest trade of the salary cap era. The sign-and-trade deal saw Matthew Tkachuk head to Florida while Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar headlined a package going to Calgary. Tkachuk brings a strong two-way game to Sunrise, along with a gritty brand of hockey that the Panthers no doubt fancy will improve their playoff results.
Aside from the blockbuster of the 2022 offseason, the Panthers had a relatively quiet summer. They signed a handful of veterans to fill gaps in their roster including Marc Stall, Michael del Zotto, Colin White and Chris Tierney. Staal is an interesting addition. The model projection suggests a high level impact based on second pair minutes, yet his individual point production is much lower than his projected on-ice offensive impact. With a high-flying group of forwards in front of him, it will be interesting to see how he fits in.
22/23 Roster
The Panthers are the top rated team in the model as training camps get set to open. Their offense drives the bus and a strong group of both forwards and defensemen contribute. If there’s a concern, it’s team defense and goaltending where the Panthers are rated just above average on both accounts.
Atlantic Division Landscape
The Atlantic Division division is home to a number of the top teams in the league over the past few seasons. The Panthers look like the cream of the crop, but they’ll be challenged by the Bruins, Leafs, and Lightning once again. There could be a new challenger emerge this season as well, as the Red Wings look ready to compete for a playoff spot.
Long Term Outlook
The Panthers’ window of contention is wide open and there are no signs of it closing in the near future. They have a large contingent of high impact players in their prime under contract and they’ve achieved that without overspending. Their spending efficiency drops off a bit a couple of years out, but they have few enough players under contract at that point that they have plenty of room to maneuver.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
