The St Louis Blues locked up a pair of young stars to long term extensions this summer. Do they have the talent surrounding them to contend this season and beyond?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Blues flew out of the gate last season and fell back to earth around the 20 game mark. They were steady the rest of the way, finishing in third place in the Central Division. Their success was powered by very strong finishing at 5v5 and strong special teams. Their strong finishing made up for a deficit in 5v5 expected goal rate while their powerplay was one of the most lethal in the league. Their offense was led by two young guns in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou along with a healthy Vladimir Tarasenko.
Playoffs
The Blues met the Wild in the opening round of the playoffs. As in the regular season, they continued to struggle at 5v5 as the Wild dominated the even strength expected goal battle. The Blues weren’t as strong at finishing as they were during the regular season, but their special teams continued to be lights out and it was enough to get by Minnesota in six games.
In the second round, the Blues met the Colorado Avalanche. The matchup didn’t help their expected goal differential in a meaningful way. The Avalanche did what the Wild could not, though, breaking through midway through the series with improved finishing and special teams which was enough to knock the Blues out in six games.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Blues had an uneventful offseason with respect to new players brought in. The most notable may be Thomas Greiss, who will back up Jordan Binnington after St Louis dealt Ville Husso to Detroit at the draft. The veteran is projected as a near average backup goalie next season.
More notable than the players the Blues added to the roster was a couple of eight year extension they signed with two young stars. Both Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou signed long term deals that will kick in for the 22/23 season. With the pair just hitting their prime, the Blues have two high impact forwards locked up with little risk.
According to CapFriendly, the Blues have less than $1M in cap space with a 22 player roster.
22/23 Roster
While Thomas and Kyrou are high impact players that the Blues should be able to build around, their roster going into the 22/23 season leaves a lot to be desired. Pavel Buchnevich is another strong forward, but the drop off in projected forward impact is steep after the top 3. Their defense is a bigger concern, with an aging defense corps needing an injection of top pair talent.
Central Division Landscape
There’s room in the Central for a few teams to take a run at a wild card spot and the Blues fall into that category. Their forward group and offense look strong enough to keep them in the hunt and they look likely to battle with the Stars and Jets for their playoff hopes.
Long Term Outlook
There have been a few higher profile players depart since the Blues 2019 Stanley Cup win, but the roster really hasn’t seen a high degree of turnover since then. It’s beginning to show in the long term outlook, as the list of contracted players trends toward aging veterans and their spending efficiency looks poor for much of the 5 year outlook. The Blues need to get younger and find some high value contracts if they hope to remain competitive over the next few seasons.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
