After a disappointing 2021-2022 season, the Blackhawks appear to be fully back in re-build mode. Do they have a decent chance of winning the draft lottery next season?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The 21/22 season was not kind to the Chicago Blackhawks. After a re-tooling effort in the summer of 2021, headlined by the acquisition of Seth Jones, the Hawks stumbled out of the gate and never recovered. They were dead last in the NHL in 5v5 xGF/60, which soured their net production given their average defensive performance. Goaltending was another large problem area, which exacerbated their 5v5 issues.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Blackhawks signaled their intent to return to full rebuild mode at the draft, shipping Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach out of town in exchange for an assortment of draft picks. They also completed a trade with the Maple Leafs to move up in the draft in exchange for taking Petr Mrazek and his $3.8M cap hit. Mrazek comes with a concerning injury history, but looks likely to be the Hawks starter when healthy.
The Blackhawks struck a few deals during free agency to fill some holes in the roster with warm bodies. One year deals also seem to have been prioritized, adding flexibility for trade deadline rental deals in the upcoming season. Andreas Athanasiou and Max Domi could both be on the move at the deadline if that logic holds, after signing matching 1 x $3M deals.
According to CapFriendly, the Blackhawks have about $7.5M in cap space currently. With all signs pointing to a re-stocking effort as the early stages of a rebuild, it seems unlikely Chicago will use that space ahead of opening night.
22/23 Roster
The Blackhawks look set to struggle in the upcoming season. Their forward group is among the worst in the NHL, which also contributes to an abysmal offense. Goaltending is a big question mark, with Mrazek’s health standing between a below average goaltending tandem and something much worse.
Central Division Landscape
While the Arizona Coyotes don’t appear ready to stop re-building yet, the model likes their chances to improve significantly over the 21/22 season. Combined with the Blackhawks’ concerted effort to tank this offseason, Chicago has taken over as the projected cellar dweller in the Central Division.
Long Term Outlook
The decision to focus on a rebuild appears to be a good long term strategy for the Blackhawks. Their forward group is expected to see some age related decline in the next few seasons and their roster simply isn’t strong enough to be a contender with the current core.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
