The Toronto Maple Leafs last won a playoff series in 2004. With several strong regular seasons in recent seasons, they haven’t been able to break through in the postseason. Will that change in the 22/23 season?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Maple Leafs put together an outstanding regular season in the 21/22 campaign. They were among the best at both generating and preventing chances at 5v5. Strong finishing made their offense even more lethal, however goaltending was a bit of a concern. The top powerplay in the NHL gave the Leafs an extra shot of offensive punch that helped propel them to the 4th best record in the NHL.
Playoffs
The Leafs entered the playoffs as the second seed in the Atlantic and drew the 2-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. The teams duked out a tight seven game series, with the Bolts getting the better of the Leafs in the end. Toronto wasn’t able to maintain their 5v5 offense at the level they did throughout the regular season and the Lightning won the special teams battle over the series.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
Most of the Leafs roster remained under contract for at least another season heading into the summer of 2022. Goaltending appeared to be an issue last season and that’s where Toronto focused their effort. With Jack Campbell’s contract expiring and Petr Mrazek sent to the Blackhawks in a draft day trade, their tandem will be completely new for the upcoming season.
The Leafs added Matt Murray in a trade a few days ahead of free agency, then signed Ilya Samsonov after he was not qualified by the Washington Capitals. Both goaltenders project as backups next season. Their goaltending looks different heading into the upcoming campaign, but the question remains if it will be better.
Outside the crease, the Leafs mostly tinkered around the edges. They added Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Jordie Benn and Calle Jarnkrok as free agent signings to fill out their roster. Jarnkrok could be a good value find. Signed to a 4 year deal with a $2.1M cap hit, his projection for next season is a middle six forward who plays a strong 2-way game.
According to CapFriendly, the Leafs are about $1.5M over the cap with 22 players on the roster as the new season approaches. They’ll have to manage the cap carefully as it is, so it seems unlikely that we’ll see more transactions from them ahead of the 22/23 season.
22/23 Roster
The Leafs were one of the top teams in the NHL last year and look likely to contend again next season with much the same group. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner lead a strong group of forwards and one of the leagues best offenses. Forward depth is a bit of a question mark, although the concern is really only around the 4th line. Goaltending could be their Achilles heel again unless the new tandem of Murray and Samsonov can outperform their projections.
Atlantic Division Landscape
The Atlantic Division may have had the largest group of true contenders last season, with the Panthers, Lightning and Bruins joining the Leafs among the NHL’s best teams. Things won’t get easier this season. The four incumbent playoff teams all look strong again, while some of the rebuilding teams made strides this summer that could see them mount a challenge to the leaders.
Long Term Outlook
The Leafs’ contention window has been open for a while now and they need to manage their core carefully over the next few seasons to keep it open. With many of their core players starting to hit the downward side of their age curves, the Leafs will have to replace the lost impact with new additions or growth from younger players while keeping the cap in check. With Austin Matthews under contract for another 2 seasons, it seems reasonable to continue to contend with the current core for another couple of seasons before they think about a major overhaul.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
