Led by Kirill Kaprisov, the Wild’s offense has surged to life over the past two seasons but two consecutive first round exits have left lingering questions. With buyout penalties looming large, can they continue to build on the current foundation in the 22/23 season?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Wild got off to a good start in the 21/22 season and stuck near the top of the division throughout the regular season. They were were a good 5v5 team, controlling better than 50% expected goal share. Their play was underpinned by a strong defensive game, however incredibly strong finishing made their offense one of the best in the league at 5v5. Their special teams weren’t all that special, but were good enough not to undo the work they did at 5v5.
Playoffs
The Wild continued their strong 5v5 play into their first round series with the St Louis Blues, however finishing took a dramatic turn from the regular season. After posting a team shooting percentage of 10.17% in the regular season, it fell to 7.35% over their six playoff games. Special teams continued to be a sore spot as the Blues won that battle which was a deciding factor in the series.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
With the cap penalties associated with the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts spiking up to a combined $12.7M next season, the Wild were in a tough spot with the cap coming into the offseason. With Kevin Fiala an RFA, the Wild had to either create cap space or move Fiala. They chose the latter, sending Fiala to the Kings while receiving prospect Brock Faber and a 1st round pick in return.
After the Fiala trade, the Wild’s offseason revolved around goaltending. They signed last year’s trade deadline acquisition Marc-Andre Fleury to a 2 year, $7M deal. Fleury is getting toward the end of his career but can still perform at a high level, with a projection for next season looking like a starting goaltender.
With Fleury in the fold, the Wild decided that Cam Talbot was expendable and traded him to the Senators for a younger goaltender in Filip Gustavsson. His sample of work at the NHL level is still very small, but the model likes what it has seen from Gustavsson so far. He could be a very capable backup for Fleury, with potential to grow into a larger role. The big question is whether he can maintain his numbers as the sample size gets larger.
According to CapFriendly, the Wild have $4.3M in cap space with 20 players on the NHL roster. That leaves a bit of room to add another player before the season starts, so it’s possible we see a depth signing or two before the start of the regular season.
22/23 Roster
Despite the cap difficulties faced this offseason and the relatively stagnant roster, the Wild go into the 22/23 season looking like a contender. Team defense and their forwards are strength, while even the weakest areas of the roster are above average.
Central Division Landscape
Home to the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche, the Central won’t be an easy division to win. The Wild go into the season with the highest projection, though, and look like the team to beat for the top seed. The Avalanche and Predators will be their toughest competition, followed by a large group looking for wild card spots.
Long Term Outlook
The Wild’s contention window is open. With a core that is in their mid-late prime and a number of high end prospects getting ready to supplant them, Minnesota is set up well to keep their window open for a long time. The cap is their biggest challenge over the next few seasons, as the worst of the Parise and Suter buyouts hit hard.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
