The Montreal Canadiens fall from grace was swift and dramatic. After a Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2021, the Habs finished the 21/22 season in last place in the NHL. With a management change mid-season, the Canadiens appear to be headed down the re-build path. What’s in store for the first full season under the new regime?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Canadiens lost a number of key players from their 2021 playoff run last offseason and had a few more dealing with injuries heading into the 21/22 season. The result was a team that struggled mightily. The Habs were outplayed badly at 5v5 through the season, with below average xGF/60 and near league worst xGA/60. An abysmal powerplay and league worst penalty kill didn’t help matters and the Canadiens limped through the season at the bottom of the standings, finishing in last place in the NHL.
There were a few bright spots among individual performances from the Canadiens. Jake Allen got an opportunity as the starter and put together a strong season, finishing in the top quartile for 5v5 GSAx/60. Cole Caufield started the season on a brutal cold spell, but improved dramatically after a mid-season coaching change and finished leading the team in 5v5 G/60.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Canadiens did their heavy lifting via trade this offseason. They started early, taking advantage of the Golden Knights cap situation to acquire Evgenii Dadonov for Shea Weber’s LTIR contract. Dadonov brings an offensive skill set that sees him projected as a top six forward. His poor defensive projection limits his overall value but he should give the Habs’ offense a much needed boost.
Montreal hosted the 2022 entry draft, but it was their action on the trade front at the draft that may have grabbed the biggest headlines. They swung a pair of deals that saw Alex Romanov head to Long Island while Kirby Dach was added from the Blackhawks. At age 21, Dach has yet to make a big splash at the NHL level and his projection for next season suggest the Blackhawks may have asked for too much too soon from the former 3rd overall pick. His projected impact is that of a third line forward, yet his projected ice time suggests he’ll play top line minutes. If the Habs can find a spot in the middle six for Dach to find his game, they may be able to get more from him.
Montreal’s penchant for big trades this offseason continued into the free agency period, when they sent Jeff Petry and Ryan Poehling to Pittsburgh in exchange for Mike Matheson and a 4th round pick. It looks like another strong trade by the Habs as Matheson looks like an upgrade over Petry based on next season’s projection. With elite offensive impacts at 5v5 and average defensive impacts, Matheson projects as a top pair defenseman and comes with a cap hit below his projected value.
According to CapFriendly, the Canadiens have just over $200k of cap space with 22 players on the roster. With uncertainty surrounding Carey Price’s future, it’s possible the Habs start the season with some additional cap space due to LTIR.
22/23 Roster
The Canadiens roster isn’t strong heading into the 22/23 season, but it does look like they took a step forward this offseason. The addition of Mike Matheson gives them a legitimate top pair defenseman, which they were sorely lacking last season, although depth on the blueline is a concern. Dadonov and Dach should help the offense, which looks like the team’s biggest strength.
Atlantic Division Landscape
With the four incumbent playoff teams looking strong again ahead of the 22/23 season, it will take a strong performance from one of last season’s non-playoff teams to unseat one of them. The Red Wings look like they have the best chance, while the Senators and Sabres are projected to be well back. The Habs sit somewhere in the middle, far enough back that it’s unlikely they’ll see the postseason but close enough to leave a glimmer of hope if puck luck and injuries fall in their favor.
Long Term Outlook
The Canadiens have entered a rebuild and they have some work to do to return to legitimacy in the Atlantic Division. Many of their longer term contracts are for players at the tail end of their prime years and some age related decline should be expected. They’ll need to move some of those veterans out to make room for their prospects. With a prospect pool that is currently rated 8th in the NHL by Hockey Prospecting, there should be some young players with NHL futures in their system. With the start of a youth movement already on the NHL roster, the Habs appear to be positioned well for the long term.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
