The Arizona Coyotes took up residence in the NHL basement last season, missing last place in the NHL by just 2 points. With a large number of expiring contracts on the books this summer, the Coyotes roster will certainly look different in the 22-23 season. Will different mean better or are the Coyotes set to occupy the NHL basement once again?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Coyotes were expected to struggle going into the season and they did just that. It took until game 12 for Arizona to pick up their first win and they picked up just 3 points in their first 15 games. They gained some traction later in the season to make their full season results somewhat more respectable, but finished just 2 points ahead of the last place Canadiens. It was an uphill battle for the Yotes most nights, as they finished with the worst 5v5 xGF% in the NHL. Goaltending only made the situation worse, as the Coyotes goaltenders combined to allow about half a goal per 60 above expected.
Shayne Gostisbehere was a bright spot for the Coyotes following an offseason trade that brought him to Arizona along with a couple of draft picks. He led the Coyotes defensemen in 5v5 P/60, sitting well above the 75th percentile for NHL defensemen. Jakub Chychrun also had a solid season on the blueline, finishing the season at the 75th percentile for 5v5 P/60 while also leading the Coyotes defensemen in 5v5 xGA/60.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Coyotes signaled their intent to continue to be a bottom feeder in the upcoming season at the draft, They acquired Zack Kassian from along with a couple of draft picks in a cap dump by the Oilers, continuing to execute a strategy to use their cap space to acquire picks. Another similar move followed, with Patrik Nemeth coming over from the Rangers along with two more draft picks.
While the Coyotes have used their cap space to stockpile additional draft picks, they’ve been prudent with the remaining term left on deals they’ve acquired. They have focused on expiring UFA deals when helping teams with their cap trouble, leaving them with a large number of departing skaters this offseason.
The Yotes dipped into the UFA pool to fill some of those holes with veterans like Troy Stecher and Nick Bjugstad signing in the desert, but it looks likely that they’ll give some of their young prospects an opportunity for some NHL playing time to fill out their 22/23 roster. They rounded out their offseason (to date) by signing RFA Lawson Crouse to a 5 year, $21.5M extension, who projects to be a middle six forward and is probably near his ceiling at age 25.
According to CapFriendly, the Coyotes have a cap hit of $62M with 22 players on the roster for next season. That puts them above the cap floor, so it seems likely we’ve seen the end of free agent additions this summer. With plenty of contending teams at or above the cap, however, the environment is ripe for the Coyotes to use that cap space to add (more draft picks?) via the trade market.
22/23 Roster
The Coyotes 22/23 roster is underwhelming, although that seems to be what the goal was. They are thin up front, with Nick Schmaltz the only forward with a projection anywhere near a top line impact. They are even thinner on the blue line, where Troy Stecher has the highest projected impact yet is projected in a second pair role. Goaltending is propping up their projected strength to some degree, although that may be a house of cards. Both goaltenders have decent projections however neither have a significant body of work at the NHL level backing the projection.
Central Division Landscape
The Central Division is headlined by the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. They are expected to be strong again, along with the Wild and Predators. Behind the probable division leaders, the Stars, Jets and Blues look like they are positioned to battle for wild card positions. The Coyotes fall in a step behind that group. If the stars align, it’s conceivable they could stay in the wild card battle. However, with the concerns we noted regarding goaltending it seems more likely that they’ll fall off the projected pace than overachieve. They still have a good chance at finishing ahead of the Blackhawks, after Chicago tore it down to the studs during the draft.
Long Term Outlook
The Coyotes are a team at the bottom of a rebuild. They have only a few players signed beyond the 23/24 season and most of their expiring contracts will be UFAs. It’s reasonable to expect a lot of turnover in the next few seasons as their prospects start working their way into the NHL lineup. That should be good news, as Hockey Prospecting has the Coyotes’ prospect pool ranked 9th in the NHL.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
