Frank Vatrano was dealt to the New York Rangers by the Florida Panthers at the trade deadline. After a deep playoff run with his new team, he heads for unrestricted free agency this summer. Let’s take a closer look at his performance in the 21/22 season and what he’s likely bring to the table next season.
2021-2022 Season
Contract Details and Projected Value
The 21/22 season was the final year of a 3 year deal that Vatrano signed with the Panthers. He began the season in Florida with the projected impact of a second line forward. He was 27 as the season got underway, nearing the end of his prime.
- Signed: February 23, 2019
- Signed by: Florida Panthers
- Length: 3 years
- Cap Hit: $2.533M
- Clause: None
2021-2022 Performance
Vatrano started the season in Florida before a deadline deal sent him to the New York Rangers. He played 74 games between the two teams in the regular season, putting up solid results. He was generally utilized as a middle six forward by both teams and his average 5v5 TOI/GP was right at league average for forwards. He outperformed offensive projections at 5v5, particularly with his primary assist rate, while putting up strong defensive impacts.
The Rangers made the playoffs, where they went on a run to the Eastern Conference Final. Vatrano contributed 3 goals and six assists at 5v5 and another 2 goals and 2 assists on the powerplay in 20 playoff games.
2022-2023 Projections
His strong 21/22 season, particularly his results with the Rangers after the trade deadline, have pushed Vatrano’s projected impact for next season into top line impact territory. It’s important to note, however, that his projected ice time is still right at league average which would put him as a middle six forward.
If a team signs Vatrano expecting him to fill a top line role his impact will likely diminish against tougher competition. A better fit next season would likely be as a middle six forward, where he could continue to put up results similar to last season.
There are a few cautionary notes for teams considering offers to Vatrano. First, is that his short time in New York saw a bit of puck luck inflate his numbers. Second, he’s also near the end of his prime and teams would be wise to consider the strong likelihood of a declining impact in their offers. A 2-3 year deal might be the sweet spot. Finally, his historical numbers show a 5v5 on-ice GF/60 that is consistently lower than the model’s projection for next season, relative to his 5v5 point production. It’s a curious trend through most of his career that’s worth some further investigation.
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Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
