Jesse Puljujarvi is no stranger to being the subject of trade rumors out of Edmonton. The summer of 2022 looks no different, as rumors started to surface following the Edmonton Oilers’ exit from the playoffs that he could be on the block. Let’s take a look at Puljujarvi’s 21/22 season and future projections to get a better idea of the impact he’s likely to have next season.
2021-2022 Season
Contract Details and Projected Value
The 21/22 season was the final year of a two year contract for Puljujarvi and the 23-year-old entered the season projected to have a replacement level impact. It’s a case where understanding the limitations of the model is important though as he spent the entire 19-20 season in the SM-liiga. He put up 53 points in 56 games that season, however it’s not factored into the projection since the model currently only uses NHL data. With that in mind, it was reasonable to expect Puljujarvi to outperform the model projections.
- Signed: October 7, 2020
- Signed by: Edmonton Oilers
- Length: 2 years
- Cap Hit: $1.175M
- Clause: None
2021-2022 Performance
Puljujarvi did outperform the model over the 21/22 regular season, and he did so while playing significantly more 5v5 minutes that the model projected. Performance typically drops as players move up the lineup and face tougher matchups, so the fact that Puljujarvi’s production didn’t drop off is a good sign. At 5v5, his individual shooting percentage was slightly below league average and his on-ice shooting percentage was near league average so there aren’t any obvious red flags for regression either.
The Oilers made the playoffs as the Pacific Division’s second seed and made it to the Western Conference Final, where they fell to the Colorado Avalanche. Puljujarvi picked up 2 goals and 1 assist in 16 playoff games, all at 5v5.
2022-2023 Projections
Puljujarvi is projected to have a second line impact for the 22/23 season. He’s just entering his prime and locking him up at a reasonable cap hit now seems like the prudent thing to do. The Oilers are in a bit of a cap crunch, though, with limited cap space and fellow RFAs Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod also in need of new deals which may force Edmonton to make some difficult decisions. Wherever he ends up next season, Puljujarvi looks like he’ll be an impactful player.
Want to peruse the player projections or team profiles for next season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
