The Los Angeles Kings 21/22 season can only be categorized as a success. They made the playoffs as the third seed in the Pacific Division and pushed the Edmonton Oilers to seven games in Round 1. Their success came from a crop of young players stepping into bigger roles, led by a few key veterans. Has the Kings’ rebuild turned the corner? Let’s take a closer look at the season that was and the forecast for the future.
2021-2022 Season Performance
The Kings didn’t get off to the best start in 20/21, going 1-5-1 in their first 8 games. It looked much like they’d be a bottom feeder in the Pacific Division before a seven game winning streak set their season on a different course. The Kings were consistent the rest of the way, slowly climbing into the final playoff spot in the division late in the regular season.
The Kings’ success was driven by their 5v5 play. Their ability to generate offense was among the best in the league while their defense was above average. Goaltending was strong, outperforming the model projections and building on their good defensive results. Their biggest challenge at 5v5 was finishing, and their inability to convert their chances brought their 5v5 GF% much closer to even than their xGF% was.
Special teams were an area of concern. The powerplay was largely ineffective, sitting in the bottom quartile for xGF/60 at 5v4. Their penalty kill was also had bottom quartile results, adding to their disadvantage on special teams.
Veteran Leadership
With a roster full of rising prospects, the Kings had standout performances from a couple of key veterans. Drew Doughty was vocal about the Kings adding some talent to become more competitive during the 2021 offseason and he backed it up with a strong performance on the ice. He was limited to just 39 games due to injury, but greatly exceeded offensive projections when he was in the lineup. Philip Danault signed in L.A. as a UFA in the summer of 2021 and his first season as a King was very productive as well.
Young Guns
The veterans were supported by the Kings youth movement. With injuries that piled up within the defense corps, there was plenty of opportunity for L.A.’s prospects to see NHL action. Mikey Anderson started the season on the roster and was eventually joined by the likes of Sean Durzi and Jordan Spence later in the season. Young, homegrown forward talent also played a big role with players like Adrian Kempe putting in performances that exceeded expectations.
Playoffs!
After clinching their first playoff berth since 2018, the Kings faced the Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. It was a back and forth series that went seven games, eventually taken over by Connor McDavid as he willed the Oilers to victory. Goaltending was a big strength for the Kings in the series, as Jonathan Quick consistently gave them a chance to win. Their struggles to finish carried over from the regular season and the Kings weren’t able to contain the Oilers superstars. While they certainly would have preferred a different result, the simple fact that the Kings saw postseason action was a step in the right direction for the rebuild.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Looking ahead to next season, we’ll assume that all RFAs return to assess projected roster strength. The Kings have a handful of pending UFAs, including Alex Edler, Olli Maatta, and Andreas Athanasiou. With the pending UFAs removed from the roster and resulting gaps filled with replacement level players, it’s clear the Kings have some work to do this summer to build on their 21/22 season momentum.
The Kings 5v5 offense is projected to be at the bottom of the NHL based on current rosters, while their 5v5 defense is just above the league median. A lack of high end talent is the biggest concern. The Kings are thin on top six forward talent and don’t have any defensemen projected to have top pair impact next season.
The good news for the Kings as they try to add higher end talent to the roster is that they have over $20M in cap space to work with this offseason. Some of that will go to signing their RFAs but they have enough cap space that they should be able to add a few additional impactful pieces. The prospect cupboard may also provide another infusion of talent at the NHL level as Hockey Prospecting has the Kings’ team prospect strength ranked 4th in the NHL.
Changing of the Guard
The old guard is on it’s way out. With Dustin Brown’s retirement following the 21/22 season, Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Quick are left carrying the torch from the Kings 2014 Stanley Cup winning roster. A new wave of talent is on it’s way in, ready to take the reigns as the Kings’ new core. The ability of players like Phillip Danault, Sean Durzi, and Cal Peterson to gradually take on increasing roles will be keys to the Kings’ future success.
Pacific Division Landscape
The Pacific Division only sent three teams to the postseason in the 21/22 season. The Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers are projected to be the teams to beat next season, along with a rebounding Vegas Golden Knights squad. With much tighter cap situations than the Kings, it will be more difficult for those teams to improve over the offseason and we could even see the Vegas roster get weaker as they deal with a major cap crunch.
The Kings sit in a tight group of rebuilding teams in the current projection. With ample cap space to make improvements over the offseason, they have plenty of opportunity to push for a playoff spot again in 22/23.
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Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
