I’m taking an in depth look at at some of this year’s pending free agents by examining their 21/22 season performance and future projections. The market for defensemen looks thin and I’ve already taken a look at Kris Letang. Today I look at another defenseman who may be highly coveted: John Klingberg.
Previous Contract
- Signed: April 17, 2015
- Signed by: Dallas Stars
- Length: 7 years
- Cap Hit: $4.25M
- Clause: None
Projected Value: 21/22 Season
Klingberg was projected as a top pair defenseman heading into the 21/22 season, although his cap was above his projected value. At age 29, he was near the end of his prime.
2021-2022 Performance
Klingberg’s results in the 21/22 season were a bit of a mixed bag. Offensively, he was near his projected impact. He got there with a goal rate well below his projection and a primary assist rate that made up the difference. His defensive impact was poor, despite playing big minutes on a defensively minded Stars team.
The Stars made the playoffs where they bowed out to the Calgary Flames in the first round. Klingberg failed to find the scoresheet at 5v5 and picked up only a single assist in the seven game series.
2022-2023 Projections
With defensive struggles showing over the past couple of seasons, Klingberg’s projection for the 22/23 season has taken a hit. He projects as a replacement level defenseman, with both offensive and defensive impacts projected to be well below average. He’s had a net negative impact at 5v5 in 3 of the past four seasons and that is projected to occur again. He’ll be 30 next season and there is a real possibility that age related decline will be a factor in his performance going forward.
The Verdict
Klingberg falls in the buyer beware category. He’s seen top pair minutes in recent seasons but his impact has been negative at 5v5. That trend is projected to continue next season. Teams would be much better off to consider him for a reduced role, where he may be able to improve his impact.
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Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
