With about a month until 2022 free agency and 28 teams now in offseason mode, I’m taking an in depth look at at some of this year’s pending free agents by examining their 21/22 season performance and future projections. Today’s subject: Ilya Mikheyev.
Previous Contract
- Signed: October 20, 2020
- Signed by: Toronto Maple Leafs
- Length: 2 years
- Cap Hit: $1.645M
- Clause: None
Projected Value: 21/22 Season
Mikheyev didn’t break into the NHL until his mid-20’s, but his first three seasons in the league were productive. The 27 year old was projected with a second line forward impact heading into the 21/22 season. With a cap hit under $2M, it looked like a very cost efficient contract for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
2021-2022 Performance
Mikheyev missed the start of the 21/22 campaign due to injury, so accumulated only 53 games this season. He was productive, putting up strong two way impacts and outperforming his offensive projection significantly. It was primarily due to a big jump in his 5v5 goal rate, which was in the top quartile for NHL forwards. Even better, it doesn’t appear to be due to shooting luck, as he shot 9.65% at 5v5 which is near league average for forwards. Instead, the jump was due to an increase in shot volume and individual expected goal rate which are more sustainable.
The Leafs made the playoffs, where they fell to the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games in the first round. Mikheyev played in all seven games, picking up 2 goals and 2 assists (1A at 5v5).
2022-2023 Projections
With signs that Mikheyev’s increased production in 21/22 is sustainable, the model projects similar impacts for the 22/23 season. It’s enough to give him a projected impact of a top line forward, with strong two-way impact. There is reason for caution given his projected icetime, however, as his impact may take a bit of a hit if a team gives him a first line opportunity against tougher matchups.
The Verdict
Mikheyev had a strong season in Toronto in a supporting role and the 22/23 projections suggest he’s likely to do so again given the opportunity. With a projected value near $6M, there may be opportunity for a smart team to get a great deal on the two-way winger.
Want to check out more of this year’s pending free agents? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
