With a little over a month until 2022 free agency, I’m taking an in depth look at at some of this year’s pending free agents by examining their recent performance and future projections. Today’s target: Filip Forsberg.
Previous Contract
- Signed: June 27, 2016
- Signed by: Nashville Predators
- Length: 6 years
- Cap Hit: $6.0M
- Clause: None
Projected Value: 21/22 Season
Forsberg’s projected impact for the 21/22 season was a top line forward as he headed into the final season of his six year contract. With a projected value nearly $1.5M below his cap hit, Nashville’s spending efficiency on Forsberg was less than ideal.
2021-2022 Performance
Forsberg put together a classic ‘contract year’, as he shot the lights out on the way to a 21/22 season performance that exceeded projections. It was primarily his 5v5 goal scoring that helped him put up a strong offensive impact, as he shot 17.22% at 5v5. It’s a number that’s not sustainable in the long term. Forsberg’s previous high for 5v5 shooting percentage was 13.04% and, historically, he’s typically been closer to the league average of around 10% for forwards. He looks like a strong candidate to see some shooting percentage regression next season.
Forsberg’s defensive impact was solid, with a 5v5 xGA/60 in the bottom quartile among NHL forwards and slightly below projected. A strong two-way game will help keep Forsberg’s overall impact high even if his shooting percentage does drop next season.
The Predators held on to make the playoffs as the 2nd wild card team and met the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche in round 1. With Juuse Saros on the sideline due to injury, it didn’t last long as the Preds were swept. Forsberg only mustered 1 point in 4 playoff games; a 5v5 goal.
2022-2023 Projections
While the model tempers expectations for Forsberg’s goal rate next season given his high shooting percentage this season, he’s still projected to be one of the NHL’s best goal scorer’s next season. He projects as a top line forward with a strong two-way impact.
The Verdict
Forsberg is one of the top pending free agent forwards in this offseason’s class. Teams that are looking to add goal scoring would be wise to consider trying to acquire his services. With a strong defensive impact to go along with his offensive ability, he’ll be a difference maker wherever he ends up. The one note of caution is his age. He’ll be 28 next season, which is is the danger zone for long term contracts. He likely has a few more seasons at the tail end of his prime before age related decline becomes a factor.
Want to check out more of this year’s pending free agents? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
