In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Sam Bennett and the Florida Panthers.
The Contract
Date: July 26, 2021
Signed by Florida Panthers:
- Sam Bennett (age 25): 4 year, $4.425M cap hit)
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Bennett was projected to have an impact of a second line forward for the 21/22 season. At age 25, he’s still early in his prime and we’re likely a few seasons away from seeing any appreciable age related decline in his game. It looks like a case where his hot hand down the stretch in the 20/21 season following the trade that sent him to Florida from Calgary earned him a nice payday with his new team. With his cap hit of $4.425M coming in nearly $1M over his projected value in 21/22, the Panthers appear to have overpaid for his services.
2021-2022 Performance
Bennett got an opportunity to be a top six forward in Florida and he put together some strong offensive numbers playing alongside the Panthers’ other skilled forwards. He outperformed offensive projections as 5v5, with the exception of secondary assists. His 5v5 G/60 was well above the projection and his 5v5 shooting percentage of 10.86% is near average for a forward. It doesn’t look like a case of shooting luck pumping up his stats. Rather, it seems more likely the bump in his scoring rate is attributable to playing alongside more talented playmakers than he had previously in his career.
Along with increased offensive production, we saw Bennett’s defensive impact take a significant hit this season. While moving up the lineup and earning significantly more minutes this season, it’s quite possible that tougher matchups played a role in his declining defensive impact.
Bennett and the Panthers entered the postseason at the top seed after winning the President’s trophy. We didn’t see “Playoff Sam Bennett” this time round, as he picked up 1 goal and 2 assists (all 5v5) in 10 playoff games before the Panthers bowed out in the second round.
2022-2023 Projections
Bennett’s projection for the 22/23 season is a second line forward. His increased offensive production outweighs the losses in his defensive impact from the 21/22 season in the model, though, and his projected value has increased from a year ago. It sits near his cap hit for the 22/23 season; a promising development for the Panthers that suggests giving him a chance in the top six paid off.
The Verdict
After a one season with the Panthers, Bennett’s contract looks better than it did when it was initially signed. An opportunity in the top six resulted in an increase in offensive production and an corresponding increase in his projected value for the remaining 3 years on his deal. At this point, it looks like a fair deal.
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