In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Phillip Danault and the Los Angeles Kings.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by Los Angeles Kings:
- Phillip Danault (age 28): 6 year, $5.5M cap hit, M-NTC – 10 team no trade list)
Previous Check-ins:
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
We looked at the deal in the November 2021 check-in, but it’s worth a quick refresher. Danault’s contract looked like good value when it was signed. A projected value exceeding his cap hit at the start of the deal tapers off over the final few seasons and provides reasonable value over the course of the 6 year deal.
2021-2022 Performance
In the November check-in, we saw that Danault started his tenure in L.A. with offensive impact near projected but his defensive impact was significantly worse than projected. It’s a trend that did not correct over the course of the full regular season as we see Danault’s 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 sitting near the 75th percentile among forwards at the end of the year.
Offensively, he continued to produce all season although it was a much higher ratio of goals to assists than anticipated. Danault shot 16.44% at 5v5 this season, which explains his goal scoring explosion. It’s a full 6% higher than his previous career high and well above league average, meaning it’s unlikely to be sustainable. His low primary assist rate is harder to explain, as his 5v5 on-ice SH% was 7.73%, which is right around league average.
Danault was also a factor in the Kings first round loss to the Edmonton Oilers, where he picked up 5 points in the seven game series.
2022-2023 Projections
While we’re likely to see some regression in Danault’s shooting percentage next season, his projected impact remains quite strong. The model still sees him as a top line forward based on his overall impact, with a projected value that still sits slightly above his cap hit.
Danault is now 29 and likely has a couple of seasons left in his prime before the inevitable aging decline starts to become a noticeable factor. His overall value in the model heading into 22/23 has improved very slightly from a year ago, giving the long term value projection a slight boost as well.
The Verdict
After a full season with the Kings, the outlook on Danault’s six year deal looks much the same as it did when it was signed last summer. He was a key piece on a Kings team that turned the corner on their rebuild in 21/22 and the long term projection suggests that the Kings will get fair value for their investment through the full length of the contract.
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