In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Michael Bunting and the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by Toronto Maple Leafs:
- Michael Bunting (age 25): 2 year, $0.95M cap hit, UFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Bunting became a Group 6 UFA in the 2021 offseason and the Maple Leafs signed him to an affordable 2 year deal.
Bunting only eclipsed 200 minutes of 5v5 play in a single season (20/21) prior to signing his deal with the Leafs. It leads to more uncertainty in the model projection, however the projection was a higher end 4th line forward and the minimal cap hit seemed worth the risk. His projected player impact value was over $2M, so the deal looked like a bargain for a capable depth forward.
2021-2022 Performance
Bunting has been exceptional this season. He got an opportunity to play on the top line with Austin Matthews and Mitch Marner after some other combinations didn’t work out as the Leafs had hoped and he hasn’t looked back. His offensive output has crushed the projections, while his defensive impact has been solid. While the deal initially looked like good value for a depth forward, this season’s performance suggests the Leafs hit the jackpot with a top line forward.
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. With his strong 21/22 season performance considered, Bunting’s projected impact is that of a top line forward for the 22/23 season. With another year at a $950k cap hit, it looks like the Leafs will get substantially higher value than they bargained for when Bunting was signed.
The Verdict
The 2 year deal between Bunting and the Maple Leafs looks like a big win for Toronto. Bunting has excelled on the top line and has provided substantially higher value than originally projected this season. With next season’s projection suggesting more of the same, the Leafs are getting a ton of value out of the $950k cap hit.
With another season left on the deal, there is still time for the results of this deal to evolve. Subscribe to get future check-ins on free agent signings and trades, along with other updates from around the NHL.
