In the RFA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted free agent along with their performance since and future projections. Today’s subject: Cale Makar and the Colorado Avalanche.
The Contract
Date: July 24, 2021
Signed by Colorado Avalanche:
- Cale Makar (age 22): 6 year, $9.0M cap hit, UFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Cale Makar became a restricted free agent during the 2021 offseason, following his first two full seasons with the Avalanche. He quickly established himself as one of the NHL’s elite defensemen in that time and entered the 2021-2022 season with the highest projected impact among NHL defensemen.
Based on his projected impact for the 21/22 season, Makar’s projected value for the 21/22 season was $6.47M. On the surface, it looks like the Avalanche overpaid for based on the 21/22 value curves. However, we need to take the value curves with a grain of salt for a player of Makar’s caliber. When there are other options to fill roles in a lineup, the value curves provide a good benchmark relative to the rest of the league. In Makar’s case, there simply isn’t another option with the same impact. When we consider that other defensemen like Seth Jones, Zach Werenski and Darnell Nurse all signed extensions in the $9M range during the 2021 offseason, it looks like a much better deal for the Avalanche. They retained the top rated defensemen in the 21/22 model at a cap hit comparable to the other highest paid defensemen in the NHL.
2021-2022 Performance
Makar hasn’t disappointed through the first 63 games of his six year deal. Projected as the highest impact defenseman in the NHL, he has outperformed the projections in all key offensive metrics. His defensive impact seems to be overlooked at times due to his offensive prowess, but he sits solidly in the bottom quartile for 5v5 xGA/60. All told, his actual impact is the highest among NHL defensemen this year and his actual value sits just below his cap hit (in spite of the issues with the value curves at the extreme high end).
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. Makar is once again projected as one of the NHL’s elite defensemen next season. We also see the market curve has adjusted with the most recent contracts and Makar’s cap hit looks more reasonable in comparison to recent deals.
The Verdict
The 6 year deal between the Avalanche and Cale Makar looks like a fair value deal when we take in context of the other highest paid defensemen in the NHL. Not only that, but Makar has outperformed his 21/22 projection and is still not in his prime. For now, this looks like a good deal with the potential to be a great deal by the time it expires.
I’ll check in on this deal again in the future as there is plenty of time for it to evolve. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
