In the RFA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted free agent along with their performance since and future projections. Today’s subject: Quinn Hughes and the Vancouver Canucks.
The Contract
Date: October 1, 2021
Signed by Vancouver Canucks:
- Quinn Hughes (age 21): 6 year, $7.85M cap hit, UFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Quinn Hughes became an RFA following his first two full seasons in the NHL, during which he became a key part of the Canucks’ defense corps. He entered the 2021-2022 season with a projected impact of a second pair defenseman and, at just age 20, had plenty of potential for growth ahead of his prime years.
Based on his projected impact for the 21/22 season, Hughes’ projected value for the 21/22 season was $3.49M. With the cap hit for his new deal coming in at $7.85M, the Canucks paid a premium for his services based on his current impact. The cap hit sits high above the overall value curve as one of the highest cap hits for players of equivalent impact to Hughes. With a six year deal, however, the Canucks were clearly looking at the long term and continued development from Hughes over the next few seasons will be key for this deal.
To get a more complete picture for the long term value Hughes deal is expected to bring to the Canucks, we can take a look at current and future value from the team perspective. This considers both player impact and cap space implications for the team. The current value looks at just the 21/22 season while the future value looks at the following five seasons which covers the remaining five years of Hughes contract in this case.
It’s clear that the Canucks paid a King’s ransom in this deal, with Hughes looking like a negative value asset once cap implications are considered. To look at it another way, if the Canucks had managed a deal closer to the $3.5M player value they would have had enough additional cap space to sign another defensemen with similar impact to Hughes at market rates. Future value looks better, but is still negative. The Canucks need Hughes to outpace the age curve in his development to pull the value of this deal up.
2021-2022 Performance
Hughes 21/22 season has been decent, but below his projected impact. Defensively, he’s been quite close to his projected impact but his offensive output has been below expectations. Adding to the concern on the offensive side, his individual 5v5 SH% is 6.49% which is quite high for a defenseman and the highest of his career. It looks most likely that we can expect a slight downward regression to his 5v5 G/60 over the long term.
22/23 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. Hughes’ projected impact for the 22/23 season is a 3rd pair two-way defenseman, with a projected value of $3.53M. It’s a trend headed in the wrong direction for Hughes and the Canucks.
The Verdict
The 6 year deal between the Canucks and Quinn Hughes looked like a dramatic overpay based on our value assessment. Hughes has performed slightly below projections in the first season of the deal, leading to projections for 22/23 that are not favorable. At this point, this doesn’t look like a good use of cap space by the Canucks. However, Hughes is still young and a rebound season next year could set things in a better direction.
I’ll check in on this deal again in the future as there is plenty of time for it to evolve. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
