I’ve been checking in on some of the more prominent free agent signings from last offseason to see how they are performing on their new deals. Today, we’ll check in on Jordan Kyrou who signed a two year extension with the Blues as a restricted free agent.
The Contract
Date: August 3, 2021
Signed by St Louis Blues:
- Jordan Kyrou (age 23): 2 year, $2.8M cap hit
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Jordan Kyrou has flown under the radar a bit, but has become an impactful player for the Blues over the past couple of seasons. His projected impact for the 21/22 season was a high end 3rd line forward, and his long term projection rises into second line forward territory by next season. He looks like he’ll be a core piece in St Louis and the Blues signed him to a bridge deal that sees him remain an RFA when this contract is up.
Based on contracts signed over the past 2 years, the market value for an RFA forward with Kyrou’s impact is $2,752,875 which is almost bang on the actual cap hit. With the current market trending below the overall value curve, we get a projected value of $3,072,000 for Kyrou when we compare to all NHL forwards. The Blues gain some value as opportunity cost since they locked up Kyrou for less than the league-wide overall value, however they also lose some value since market curves show re-signing RFA forwards is more expensive than signing equivalent UFAs. All things considered, this looks looks like a very reasonable deal.
| To STL | |
| Jordan Kyrou – Player Impact | $3,072,000 |
| Jordan Kyrou – Contract Expiry (UFA) | -$514,140 |
| Jordan Kyrou – Opportunity Cost | $272,000 |
| Total Value | $2,829,860 |
2021-2022 Performance
St Louis Blues – Jordan Kyrou
Kyrou is having an outstanding season offensively for the Blues. He’s outperforming his projected individual point production rates at 5v5 by wide margins, particularly for primary points. His 5v5 on-ice GF/60 reflects his strong play as well. Both his individual SH% and on-ice SH% are a bit on the high side at 5v5 (16% and 11%, respectively), yet they are in-line with his number from last season. It’s reasonable to expect some regression on both numbers over the long term, but probably not to the extent that would drop his point rates down to the projections.
Defensively, things haven’t gone as well for Kyrou, with a 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 that sits above the 75th percentile. The advancement of his offensive game suggests he could be a core piece in the Blues top 6, but he’ll need to improve his defensive impact to bring his overall impact higher.
The Verdict
The 2 year deal between the Blues and Kyrou looked like a very reasonable deal for both sides when it was signed. Kyrou has enjoyed offensive success well above projections so far this season that doesn’t appear to be a façade. Based on the early returns, this signing looks like a win for the Blues.
I’ll check in on this deal again in the future as there is plenty of time for it to evolve. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, armchair GM plans and other updates from around the NHL.
