Armchair GM: Detroit Red Wings (Jan 2022)

The Red Wings are well into their rebuild and the future looks bright. With some high caliber prospects starting to infiltrate the NHL roster, the Wings may soon be ready to take flight as a contender. Let’s put ourselves in Steve Yzerman’s shoes and build an Armchair GM plan for the Red Wings.

Current Season Performance

Team Performance

Date: 2022-JAN-04

Record: 15-15-3 (33 Pts), 5th in the Atlantic

Current Projected P%: 0.521 (85 Pts), 5th in the Atlantic

Season Opening Projected P%: 0.573 (94 Pts), 4th in the Atlantic

Team Performance:

The Red Wings have shown flashes of becoming a strong team this season but have been too inconsistent to hang with the division leaders. With young players like Lucas Raymond and Moris Seider stepping up and contributing at the NHL level, they have some pieces in place to pull out of their rebuild. However, they need to improve all around depth to continue to improve. They simply aren’t good enough yet with 5v5 xGF/60 below the league median and 5v5 xGA/60 well above the league median. Special teams have also been a challenge this season with both the powerplay and penalty kill performing below the league median.

For more plots on the current season performance, see the Detroit Red Wings team page.

Current Roster Construction

The Red Wings roster is a work in progress as they continue to rebuild. The addition of Alex Nedeljkovic in the offseason helps rank their goaltending above league average. They have some good young players starting to contribute at the NHL level, but still have some sizable holes in the roster in comparison to contending teams. They’ll need continued development from their young stars to help fill the void at the top of the lineup, with the top six forwards and top four defense still needing dramatic improvement.

Long Term Outlook

The Red Wings have their first player under contract for the 24/25 season after signing Robbi Fabbri to an extension last month. With nearly half the roster headed for unrestricted free agency next offseason, the Red Wings have a pile of available cap space at their disposal over the next few seasons that they can use to bolster their young team.

Hockey Prospecting ranks the Red Wings prospect system 13th in the NHL. They have a number of prospects percolating that may be ready to join this season’s star rookies Lucas Raymond and Moris Seider in Detroit in the near future. Defense is a strong area in the system, with Albert Johansson, Alex Cotton, and Simon Edvinsson behind Seider on the prospect depth chart.

Objective

Status:

Contending

Re-tooling

Re-building

Re-stocking

Target Contention Window:

Starting 2023-2024

Comments:

The Red Wings got off to a strong start this season, led by their young stars. With a number of good prospects developing in the system and plenty of cap space available in the next two offseasons, the Wings are in a position to push their rebuild forward in a big way. Developing prospects can contribute on high value entry level contracts and the Red Wings can use their cap space to fill holes in the roster via trade or free agency.

Current Lineup

Current season performance is provided for comparison with 21/22 season projections for the full strength lineup. Long term impact projections are also provided for long term considerations. Lines are provided as a reference for likely combinations at full strength, but it’s expected that the lineup will be shuffled on a regular basis by the head coach. Players that are out long term with injuries are also included for consideration in the multi-year plan.

Line 1 – Tyler Bertuzzi / Dylan Larkin / Jakub Vrana

The top line in the Red Wings full strength lineup is headlined by Jakub Vrana, who has been sidelined all season with a shoulder injury. Acquired from the Capitals at last season’s trade deadline, Vrana’s projected impact is a high impact top line forward. At age 25, he’s just entering his prime and should be a key piece to a contending Red Wings team. Larkin and Bertuzzi don’t have projections that suggest they are ideal for the top line. Larkin looks like a second line forward, while Bertuzzi projects as a borderline 2nd/3rd line forward. Both are producing well above projected levels offensively this season, however both seem to be benefitting from some percentage luck. Bertuzzi is shooting over 21% at 5v5 this season while Larkin is at almost 17%. Those numbers are likely not sustainable and we’ll probably see them regress offensively over a larger sample size.

Line 2 – Robby Fabbri / Pius Suter / Lucas Raymond

Lucas Raymond has spent the 21/22 season on the top line, but with a healthy Vrana in the lineup I’ve bumped Raymond to the second line. At age 19, Raymond is having a huge impact for the Wings this season and looks like a probable Calder nominee at this stage of the season. Still years away from his peak, Raymond looks likely to become a staple in the Red Wings top six. Robbi Fabbri recently signed a 3 year extension that sees him as the first Red Wing under contract for the 24/25 season. His projected impact is a 3rd line forward and it’s likely he’ll slide down the lineup as the Wings contending roster takes shape. Suter signed a 2 year deal last offseason but we may not see him factor into the Red Wings long term plans with a borderline 4th line projected impact.

Line 3 – Adam Erne / Michael Rasmussen / Filip Zadina

We find a couple of young players on the third line that could fill depth roles for the Wings as they come out of their rebuild. Rasmussen and Zadina both have bottom six projected impacts, which are expected to increase as they come into their prime. With a replacement level projected impact, Erne may not make the cut for a contending team.

Line 4 – Sam Gagner / Mitchell Stephens / Vladislav Namestnikov

The fourth line is made up of youngster Mitchell Stephens flanked by veterans Sam Gagner and Vladislav Namestnikov. Stephens has the best chance of sticking around for the end of the rebuild as a depth player. His two wingers will likely move on by the time Detroit starts to contend.

Pair 1 – Danny DeKeyser / Moritz Seider

Moritz Seider is already making an impact on the Wings top pair and he’s only 20. He looks like the Wings future #1 defenseman (if he isn’t already). DeKeyser is at the tail end of his prime and has a projected 2nd pair impact this season that is expected to decline significantly over the next few seasons. As a pending UFA this season, he could be a trade chip in one final trade deadline as sellers.

Pair 2 – Marc Staal / Filip Hronek

Marc Staal returned to Detroit on a one year deal to fill out this season’s roster. With a declining replacement level projected impact, it’s not likely we’ll see him back as the Red Wings move toward contender status. Filip Hronek may stick as a bottom pair defenseman.

Pair 3 – Nick Leddy / Troy Stetcher

We find another pair of veterans on the third defense pairing. As with Staal, Nick Leddy seems unlikely to fit in the Red Wings long term plans. Stetcher is more likely to, as he is not in his prime with a borderline 2nd/3rd pair impact, however he may also have value as a trade chip to bring in a younger player.

Goaltenders – Alex Nedeljkovic / Thomas Griess

The Red Wings acquired Alex Nedeljkovic from the Hurricanes in the offseason, with the hope that he would continue his strong play from the 20/21 season that saw him nominated for the Calder trophy. So far, he’s been up to the task and could be a factor as the Red Wings turn the corner on their rebuild. Griess has struggled this season and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him eventually replaced by one of the Wings’ percolating goaltender prospects.

Top Priorities

2021-2022 Trade Deadline

The Atlantic Division is lead by a group of four strong teams that the Red Wings are unlikely to catch in this year’s playoff race. With a large number of pending UFAs, they have an opportunity to be deadline sellers one more time before they start to challenge as a contender.
Trade Danny DeKeyser to a contending team for future assets and/or a younger impact player. With the prospect depth chart loaded with defensemen, adding some potential at forward would be ideal.
Explore the trade market for other pending UFAs. Vladislav Namestnikov may be the most interesting option at forward as he’s outperformed his projection so far this year and may net a solid return. Sam Gagner, Marc Staal, Nick Leddy, and Troy Stetcher are other options that contenders may have interest in. Moving them all would be ideal to give the prospect system one last injection of talent before moving the rebuild toward contender status.

2022 Offseason

The focus in the 2022 offseason is incorporating prospects into the NHL lineup and complementing them with external additions.
A backup goalie will be required to replace Griess. There may be an internal option, with a handful of solid goaltending prospects in Detroit’s system. 24 year old Victor Brattstrom may be the most likely option for the 22/23 season, allowing 19 year old Sebastian Cossa to develop in the minors. If there isn’t a suitable prospect ready for NHL backup duty, a low cost free agent is another good option.
The left side of the defense requires some attention, with UFAs DeKeyser, Leddy, and Staal all either traded at the deadline or headed for the open market. None are great options for the contending Red Wings and Detroit would be better off looking to prospects or externally for replacements. Ideally, the Wings will be able to fill at least two of these spots from within. They should also target a top pair defenseman in free agency or via trade to play alongside Seider.
The return of Jakub Vrana will give the Red Wings forwards a boost, but they need to add additional top six talent to become a true contender. Their prospect system is weakest at forward, so this is an area they should look to use some of their cap space in free agency. The Wings will likely need to add a top line left winger and center at some point, so acquiring at least one of these players in the 2022 offseason is a priority. With players like Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, and Tomas Hertl currently pending UFAs, there may be some intriguing options available.

2023 Offseason

Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi will be UFAs in the 2023 offseason and the Wings will have to decide whether to re-sign each of them. Both currently project as useful players and Detroit can likely find a suitable spot in the lineup for them provided the cap hits are reasonable. If either or both are not re-signed, the Wings will have to replace them with equivalent or better top six forwards.
Add another top six forward. Assuming a winger was added in the 2022 offseason, target a center.
Improve center depth. It’s ideal if this can be done by bringing up prospects, but if there isn’t a suitable prospect ready it can be done by other means.
Add a top four right defenseman. Hronek is capable, but would be better suited as a 3rd pair defenseman on a contending team.
Alex Nedeljkovic will be a UFA. If he proves himself as an NHL starter over his current 2 year deal, re-sign him as the backbone of the contending lineup. If he falters, look to prospects or externally for a suitable starting goaltender.