I’ve been checking in on some of the more prominent free agent signings from last offseason to see how they are performing with their new teams. Today, we’ll check in on Zach Hyman.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by Edmonton Oilers:
- Zach Hyman (age 29): 7 year, $5.5M cap hit, NMC first 5 years, M-NMC final 2 years)
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Hyman was a staple on the Maple Leafs top line prior to his move to Edmonton and there was every reason to believe he would succeed alongside Connor McDavid. His projected impact for the 2021-2022 season is a first line forward and he has proven he can play alongside some of the leagues best players. At age 29, it’s fair to wonder about his impact in the final years of a long deal, as his impact is projected to decline to a second line forward by the end of the contract.
Hyman’s projected Impact for the 2021/2022 season is 0.94 5v5 Net G/60 Above Replacement. Based on the market value curve for UFA forwards, the market value for a UFA forward of his impact is $3,323,538. While Hyman’s $5.5M cap hit looks like an overpay based on his year 1 projections, the number of top line forwards available on the market is generally low and the Oiler’s were able to add a high quality player to their roster that can help them win now. The bigger concern is the length of the deal, as we see some significant decline in projected value by the end of the contract.
| To EDM (Year 1) | To EDM (Year 7) | |
| Zach Hyman – Player Impact | $4,500,000 | $3,906,000 |
| Zach Hyman – Contract Expiry (UFA) | $0 | $0 |
| Zach Hyman – Opportunity Cost | -$1,000,000 | -$1,594,000 |
| Total Value | $3,000,000 | $2,312000 |
2021-2022 Performance
Edmonton Oilers – Zach Hyman
Hyman has had a hot hand early in his tenure with the Oilers, with 5v5 G/60 well above projected. Playing roughly 65% of his 5v5 time with Connor McDavid may be a factor, as he gets setup by the best player in the game on a nightly basis. Despite his strong goal scoring rate, his on-ice 5v5 GF/60 is below projected. It’s quite likely that the Oilers top line is driving offense and carrying the defensemen who play with them, which may be the reason for the lower 5v5 GF/60 rate. Hyman’s 5v5 xGA/60 is also worse than projected.
Team Performance – Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers got off to a scorching hot start this season, but have found some bumps in the road of late. Clearly in win now mode as they try to take advantage of having two of the world’s top forwards on their roster, Hyman has been a factor in their success this season.
The Verdict
Based on the early returns, the Oilers are getting slightly less value than projected from Hyman through the first part of season 1 of his contract and the length of the deal is also a concern. With a contention window open, the success of Hyman’s deal seems like it’s tied to the Oiler’s ability to go on a deep playoff run so it’s too early to pan this deal yet.
We’re still early in the season of the first year in a seven year deal, so there ‘s plenty of time for the results of this signing to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, armchair GM plans and other updates from around the NHL.
