The prospect cupboards are bursting with talent in Los Angeles after a successful few seasons spent re-stocking. Where do the Kings go next to transform that potential into a contender? Let’s take a look at the current roster and put together an Armchair GM plan for the Kings.
Current Season Performance
Team Performance
Date: 2021-DEC-23
Record: 14-11-5 (33 Pts), 5th in the Pacific
Current Projected P%: 0.535 (88 Pts), 6th in the Pacific
Season Opening Projected P%: 0.468 (77 Pts), 8th in the Pacific
Team Performance:
The Kings weren’t expected to be a contender in the Pacific Division this season. While they sit back of the division leaders, they have stayed within striking distance of the Western wildcard spots through the first 30 games. Jonathan Quick’s resurgence has been a big reason for their success so far, with excellent goaltending masking some defensive issues at 5v5. The Kings 5v5 xGA/60 sits near the 75th percentile and will need to improve for them to push into contender territory. Offensively, the Kings have done well generating 5v5 chances but finishing has been a problem. Both the powerplay and penalty kill have been relatively average.
For more plots on the current season performance, see the Los Angeles Kings team page.
Current Roster Construction
The Kings roster strength is somewhat underwhelming currently, with below average rankings across the board. In the Kings case, this is the sign of a young, rebuilding team. There are plenty of internal prospects who have potential to close the gaps in the roster over the next few seasons. Also worth noting is that the Kings are getting good value for their cap dollars almost universally. There are a couple of exception, however, and they are big ones with four holdovers from the Kings previous Cup winning teams now showing declining impacts late in their careers while taking up a lot of cap space.
Long Term Outlook
The Kings’ overall spending efficiency is poor. As we saw in the section above, it’s due mainly to a few large contracts with poor projected value in Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown and Jonathan Quick. With Brown the only pending free agent in the group, the trend continues for the next few seasons. The good news is that the Kings have a significant amount of cap space next season and beyond due to their efficient spending through the rest of the roster so they have flexibility on their side.
Hockey Prospecting ranks the Kings’ prospect system as #1 in the NHL. With prospects like Brandt Clarke, Quinton Byfield and Gabe Vilardi in the system with decent star probabilities, the Kings would have to be incredibly unlucky to not have a future star or two in the pipeline. The one area where their prospect strength isn’t as strong is goaltending, where they rank 28th. Without a high probability goalie prospect in the system, it’s an area the Kings will have to pay attention to as they try to turn the corner on their rebuild.
Objective
Status:
| Contending | Re-tooling | Re-building | Re-stocking |
Target Contention Window:
Starting 2024-2025
Comments:
The Kings have had a decent start to the 21/22 season, yet their roster is still simply not strong enough to consider themselves contenders. With an abundance of high quality prospects in the system, the focus now turns to developing their prospects and filling any remaining holes in the roster. If managed well, the Kings have the makings of a perennial contender a few years down the road. It’s possible that they make the playoffs ahead of the target window, providing valuable experience to a young core.
Current Lineup
Current season performance is provided for comparison with 21/22 season projections for the full strength lineup. Long term impact projections are also provided for long term considerations. Lines are provided as a reference for likely combinations at full strength, but it’s expected that the lineup will be shuffled on a regular basis by the head coach. Players that are out long term with injuries are also included for consideration in the multi-year plan.
Line 1 – Victor Arvidsson / Anze Kopitar / Dustin Brown
The top line is veteran heavy, with longtime Kings Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown joined by 2021 offseason acquisition Victor Arvidsson. All three have performed near their projected impacts this season, with Brown being the possible exception trending below his projection. The trouble for Kings is that Kopitar and Brown are on the tail end of their careers with what are now poor value contracts and that each player on the line only has a projected 2nd line impact this season. To move into contender territory, the Kings need to upgrade this line across the board. With both Brown and Kopitar trending toward bottom six impacts by the target contention window, they may be moved out before then to help the rebuild.
Line 2 – Adrian Kempe / Phillip Danault / Alex Iafallo
Phillip Danault anchors the second line. Still in his prime, he has performed near projections this season although defensively he’s been worse than projected. His projected impact is a top line forward for the next five season though, and he could be a core piece in the top six for the Kings long term. Adrian Kempe and Alex Iafallo have outperformed offensive projections so far this season while underperforming defensively. It may be a symptom of playing further up the lineup than ideal, with Iafallo’s impact that of a third line forward and Kempe a borderline fourth line forward. Iafallo could be a useful middle six forward at the start of the target window while Kempe looks like a replaceable player.
Line 3 – Trevor Moore / Lias Andersson / Carl Grundstrom
We start to find the Kings youth movement on the third line, with Trevor Moore being the elder statesman at age 26. Moore is struggling offensively this season, but his long term projection suggests he could fit in the middle six in the long term. Andersson and Grundstrom both project as replacement level forwards and will likely not fit in the long term plans.
Line 4 – Arthur Kaliyev / Blake Lizotte / Rasmus Kupari
Blake Lizotte is flanked by two wingers with big potential on the fourth line. Both Rasmus Kupari and Arthur Kaliyev project as borderline top line forwards in 4-5 years. If their development stays on track with their NHL performance to date, they could be some of the core pieces in the top six as the Kings transform into a contender. Kupari’s prospect projection from Hockey Prospecting is much weaker, however, so it’s unclear if he’ll be a long term fit for the top six. Lizotte’s long range projection isn’t as good and, if he sticks around, it will likely be as a depth player.
Pair 1 – Mikey Anderson / Drew Doughty
Like the top line, the top defense pair features a long-time Kings’ core piece in Drew Doughty. Like Kopitar and Brown, Doughty’s impact is on the decline at the tail end of his career and he may prove more valuable to the rebuild as a trade chip although the length of his contract may make a trade difficult. His partner, Mikey Anderson, may be the new anchor of the defense corps. With a projected top pair impact this season at only age 22, he could be an elite defensemen at the start of the target window.
Pair 2 – Tobias Bjornfot / Matt Roy
Tobias Bjornfot is another defenseman with big potential on the King’s blue line. He may provide a solid 1-2 punch on the left side behind Mikey Anderson. The right side needs more attention, with Matt Roy looking more like a depth piece in the long term.
Pair 3 – Alex Edler / Sean Walker
The third pair in the full strength lineup is manned by veterans Sean Walker and Alex Edler. Both are currently on LTIR, with Walker reportedly done for the season. With the injuries, the Kings have an opportunity to see what some of their younger defensemen can bring at the NHL level.
Goaltenders – Jonathan Quick / Cal Petersen
Jonathan Quick has been rejuvenated this season and currently leads the league in 5v5 GSAx/60. His strong play is no small part of the Kings stronger than expected results through 30 games. Yet Quick is 35 this season, so an eventual decline is likely. With the target window three seasons out, the Kings may want to consider moving Quick while his numbers are strong. Backup Cal Petersen has been better than projections so far, yet may not be the answer in net as the starter.
Top Priorities
2021-2022 Trade Deadline
- Trade pending free agent Dustin Brown for future assets. Brown’s impact is declining and he is a pending UFA. With two Stanley Cups on his resume, there will be contending teams interested in his services. Brown doesn’t fit well with the target contention window and the future assets will help to keep the window open longer once the Kings are contenders. While the Kings are starting to turn the corner on the rebuild, they are still far enough from the target window that one more season as trade deadline sellers is in the cards.
- Trade Jonathan Quick for future assets. The same logic applies here as it did with Brown, with the added consideration that Quick has enjoyed some strong results this season that may increase his trade value. It will leave a hole at the goaltending position that the Kings will have to fill before the contention window opens.
- Trade veteran defensemen on expiring contracts for future assets. The list of possible trade chips includes Alex Edler, Olli Matta, and Christian Wolanin.
2022 Offseason
- The focus in the 2022 offseason is incorporating prospects into the NHL lineup to gain experience at the NHL level and continue to develop.
- Fill the hole left by Brown’s departure with a prospect and move another prospect into the top six, sliding Kempe down to the third line where he is expected to be a better long term fit.
- Quinton Byfield and Gabe Vilardi both have high star potential. If they don’t look out of place at the NHL level, start incorporating them into the NHL lineup. Getting them time in the top six throughout the season should be a goal to ensure they get plenty of ice time to enhance their development.
- Acquire a goaltender to complement Cal Petersen. With much more uncertainty around goaltender projections than skaters, Petersen may still be a valuable asset. Give him a starters load to see what he has, with a capable backup in place on a short term contract. If the goaltending situation doesn’t sort itself out this way, the option is still available to go after a premiere free agent goaltender at the start of the contention window.
2023 Offseason
- Continue to move forward prospects up the lineup as they continue their development. Byfield and Vilardi have the best prospect probabilities and are likely to land in the NHL in the long term but there are others who may develop into NHL players in this timeframe as well.
- Complete the changing of the guard on defense. Doughty may not easily be moved due to his cap hit, but he shouldn’t hold down a top four spot. Brandt Clarke will hopefully be ready for the NHL. With huge star potential, he could be a top pair defenseman in the long term. Sean Durzi looks like a potential top four defender as well. The hole on the left side of the third pair can be filled with either a prospect or a free agent addition.
That wraps up my take on the current state of the Kings and a possible vision for the team. What would you do if you were in the GM’s chair?
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Input data for models and actual current season data: NaturalStatTrick
Cap data: CapFriendly
Prospect rankings: Hockey Prospecting
Great analysis! Super in depth. Very much appreciated as a Kings fan.
There is a mistake at the end, however – it says, “That wraps up my take on the current state of the Rangers and a possible vision for the team.”
Thanks for the heads up. Fixed now.