Armchair GM: Edmonton Oilers (Dec 2021)

The Edmonton Oilers boast a generational talent in Connor McDavid. With limited postseason success during his tenure thus far, including a four game sweep at the hands of the Jets last season, the McDavid era has yet to find playoff success. Let’s take a look at the current roster and put together an Armchair GM plan for the Oilers.

Current Season Performance

Team Performance

Date: 2021-DEC-14

Record: 16-10-0 (32 Pts), 3rd in the Pacific

Current Projected P%: 0.578 (95 Pts), 2nd in the Pacific

Season Opening Projected P%: 0.580 (95 Pts), 3rd in the Pacific

Team Performance:

The Oilers got off to their best start in franchise history, posting a 9-1-0 record through their first 10 games. They’ve cooled off significantly following their hot start though and are currently in the midst of a 5 game losing streak. The entire picture puts the Oilers squarely in line with projections from the start of the season. With the Oilers struggling at 5v5 when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are not on the ice, it’s been the Oiler’s potent powerplay leading the way.

For more plots on the current season performance, see the Edmonton Oilers team page.

Current Roster Construction

The Oilers roster is built around two of the most explosive players in the world and their roster strength comparison shows it. Their offensive projections and top six forward group stack up as some of the strongest in the NHL. Yet the rest of the roster leaves something to be desired. With their weak defensive projections, the Oilers high octane offense is relied upon to score their way out of trouble. The defense corps and bottom six forward group could stand to be upgraded with an eye on improving team defense.

Long Term Outlook

The Oilers are getting decent value for their cap expenditure this season, however things start to take a turn for the worse starting next season. Darnell Nurse’s extension kicks in for the 22/23 season, increasing his cap hit by $3.65M. Kailer Yamamoto, Derek Ryan and Evan Bouchard are also pending free agents and currently have some of the best value contracts on the roster. Retaining or replacing them with equally high value contracts will be key for the Oilers to remain competitive.

The Oiler’s prospect system is in decent shape and is one avenue through which Edmonton may be able to find some high value additions at the NHL level. Hockey Prospecting has the team ranked 12th in team prospect strength, with 1.18 projected stars and 7.65 projected NHLers among skaters and the 4th ranked goaltender prospect pool. Evan Bouchard (D) and Ilya Konovalov (G) look like good bets to become key players for Edmonton. With plenty of others in the system with decent NHLer probabilities, the Oilers should have some young, high value options that can step into depth roles over the next few seasons.

Objective

Status:

Contending

Re-tooling

Re-building

Re-stocking

Target Contention Window:

Now

Comments:

The Oilers have a generational talent in Connor McDavid, along with arguably the second best player in the world in Leon Draisaitl. The time to win is now. Their teambuilding focus should be squarely at the NHL level, looking for any options that improve the current NHL roster. With a strong prospect pool in place, the Oilers have plenty of assets with future value that they can use to improve their current roster while still leaving some options in the system to step up to the NHL level with high value entry level contracts.

Current Lineup

Current season performance is provided for comparison with 21/22 season projections for the full strength lineup. Long term impact projections are also provided for long term considerations. Lines are provided as a reference for likely combinations at full strength, but it’s expected that the lineup will be shuffled on a regular basis by the head coach.

Line 1 – Zach Hyman / Connor McDavid / Jesse Puljujarvi

Connor McDavid leads the top line and his game-breaking talent makes everyone around him better. Hyman and Puljujarvi are enjoying success above their projected offensive impacts alongside McDavid, although defense has been more of a challenge. While the line has been good, there is room for improvement, with Hyman’s projected impact a borderline top line forward and Puljujarvi’s a third line forward. McDavid in his prime and under contract through the 25/26 season, making him the cornerstone for the Oiler’s to build a contender around. Hyman is also signed long term, while Puljujarvi is a pending RFA.

Line 2 – Ryan Nugent-Hopkings / Leon Draisaitl / Kailer Yamamoto

The second line is also lead by a world-class talent in Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl has been stellar at 5v5 this season, although Yamamoto and Nugent-Hopkins have seen somewhat less success. Draisaitl is signed through the 24/25 season, giving the Oilers a top tier one-two punch at center. Nugent-Hopkins is signed long term and Yamamoto is headed for restricted free agency following this season.

Line 3 – Warren Foegele / Ryan McLeod / Zack Kassian

The cracks in the Oilers’ 5v5 play start to appear in the third line. Kassian and Foegele have poor defensive impacts this season, with offensive impacts near projections. The trouble is the offensive output simply isn’t high enough to overcome their poor defensive numbers. Ryan McLeod seems to have found a permanent spot in the bottom six and, while his offensive numbers haven’t been great so far, he has been strong defensively unlike the rest of the bottom six. McLeod is a pending RFA while the two wingers have another 2 seasons left on their deals following this season.

Line 4 – Devin Shore / Derek Ryan / Brendan Perlini

The fourth line has been caved consistently this season. The Oilers have tried a variety of combinations to patch up the fourth line, but it’s been to no avail. With almost no offensive output at 5v5 and weak defensive impacts, the Oilers need to find a way to improve their foward depth.

Pair 1 – Darnell Nurse / Tyson Barrie

The top pair of Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie have struggled defensively at 5v5 this season, particularly in Barrie’s case. Barrie’s on-ice 5v5 xGA/60 is above the 75th percentile league-wide and higher than projected. The pair haven’t been able to make up for it offensively either, with both player’s offensive numbers currently below projections. Both players have seen less even strength time with McDavid this season compared to last, which may be part of the discrepancy. However, Nurse has seen 52% of his 5v5 time with McDavid and Barrie has seen 41% of his 5v5 time with McDavid so they have certainly had their opportunities. It highlights a deeper issue, however, where the Oilers desperately need someone to carry play when McDavid and Draisaitl are not on the ice. With a long-term extension kicking in for Nurse next season and Barrie signed through 23/24, the Oilers need more out of their top pair.

Pair 2 – Duncan Keith / Cody Ceci

The Oilers brought in Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci to provide a veteran presence on defense. Together, they have performed near projections, with better than expected defensive impacts, particularly in Keith’s case. The trouble is their projected impacts are those of a replacement level and a third pairing defensemen. With both players on multi-year deals, their combined cap hit of nearly $9M is tying up valuable cap space, with limited on-ice impact in return.

Pair 3 – Kris Russell / Evan Bouchard

Kris Russell and Evan Bouchard round out the defense corps. Russel has performed worse than projected defensively and, while his on-ice 5v5 GF/60 is well above projections, his offensive impact appears to be driven by line mates given his lack of primary points. Bouchard has been the bright spot on the blue line. With the projected impact of a borderline top pair defensemen, he has performed near expectations so far this season. At just 22 years old, there is reason to believe he could be a staple in the top four as early as this season.

Goaltenders – Mike Smith / Mikko Koskinen

The Oilers’ goaltending tandem is a veteran duo. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen both have projected impacts of starting goaltenders, although both are close to the benchmark cutoff. Smith was injured early in the season and has seen very limited action as a result so we don’t have a good sense whether his strong play from last season will carry over this year. Koskinen has carried the load with Smith out and has performed near his projected impact. With both players later in their careers, the Oilers’ crease will need an overhaul soon.

Top Priorities

2021-2022 Trade Deadline

The bottom six forward group needs an upgrade. With projected deadline cap space currently less than $1M, the Oiler’s will have to look for low cost, high value additions. Adding a couple of bottom six forwards that can displace players from the current full strength lineup would help provide more balance through the forward lines.
Add a defensively responsible top four defenseman. The same cap logic applies here, so bargain shopping is the name of the game again. Besides improving the defense corps, this upgrade would also help the bottom six forwards by helping them spend less time in their own end.
Although it’s really a coaching adjustment, Evan Bouchard needs to move to the top pair. He has been the Oilers best defenseman at 5v5 this season and is only going to get better at this stage of his career.
As a stretch target, acquire a top line right winger. The options will depend on how much cap space can be piled up ahead of the deadline. This would not only be an upgrade for the top line, but help the forward depth as well as it would leave Puljujarvi and Yamamoto to man the right side on lines 2 and 3.

2022 Offseason

Re-sign RFAs Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and McLeod. All three are capable NHLers and are either approaching or in their prime. As RFAs, the team has more leverage than on the UFA market and can keep the cap hits reasonable. There needs to be some caution with cap hits on new deals, however. Playing regularly with McDavid is a recipe for inflated individual statistics and keeping that in mind when negotiating new deals will be key to ensuring cap hits stay reasonable.
Explore the trade market for Puljujarvi and Yamamoto. This is not an indictment of either player, but a recognition that their individual statisticss are likely inflated from playing with McDavid and Draisaitl. There is potential to sell high on one of them and get a higher impact player in return. If their asking price for a new deal is unreasonably high, it may provide additional incentive to pull the trigger on a deal.
Acquire a top four defenseman with strong defensive impacts. Assuming the defenseman acquired at the 21/22 trade deadline was a pure rental, there will be a spot open on the left side. Adding a stronger defensive presence will help the Oilers’ 5v5 metrics.
Trade Tyson Barrie. Barrie will have 2 seasons left on his deal and is cresting 30, where we can expect to start seeing a declining impact. Moving Barrie would clear $4.5M in cap space (that could be used to re-sign the three RFAs from the first bullet) and open a spot on the right side for a prospect like Philip Broberg.

2023 Offseason

Re-sign RFA Evan Bouchard. Bouchard has the potential to be an elite defenseman and planning to lock him up long term looks like a good option.
Duncan Keith will be a UFA, opening a spot on defense and $5.5M in cap space. The cap space may be required to lock up Bouchard, so acquire a high value defenseman for the second or third pair to replace Keith.
Acquire a goaltender that complements Ilya Konovalov. Ideally, Konovalov will be ready for prime time as a starter but a 1A/1B arrangement could also be considered.
Acquire a top line winger with any remaining cap space. Upgrading McDavid’s linemates will only make the top line more dangerous. It also bumps others down the lineup, improving overall forward depth.