Armchair GM: Montreal Canadiens (Dec 2021)

The Montreal Canadiens cleaned house in their front office on Sunday and brought in Jeff Gorton as Executive Vice President of Hockey Operations. Today, we’ll put ourselves in the GM’s chair and put together an Armchair GM Plan for the Canadiens.

Current Season Performance

Yesterday, we did a deep dive on the Canadiens performance through the first quarter of the 2021-2022 season. They were projected to be a borderline playoff team and have clearly fallen short of expectations to start the season. It’s been sub-par results across most key metrics sinking the Habs. Check out the full Canadiens Season Performance Report for the gory details.

Current Roster

The Canadiens roster is lacking in top end talent. The top six forward group and the top four defense are both weak relative to other teams in the league. They lack of elite talent also shows up in their below average offense. What they lack in elite offensive talent, they make up for in defense and depth. The bottom six and bottom pair are strong and should be capable of holding their own. At full strength, the tandem of Carey Price and Jake Allen provides a solid 1-2 punch in goal. The Canadiens have spent their cap efficiently for the 21/22 season, getting a projected 5v5 value out of the full strength lineup that is greater than the cap hit.

For more plots on the current roster, see the Montreal Canadiens team page.

Long Term Outlook

While the Canadiens are getting good value from their cap space this season, things take a turn for the worse starting next season. Extensions kick in for Nick Suzuki and Jake Evans, decreasing the cap efficiency for both players. A handful of excellent value contracts are also up after the 21/22 season, with Mathieu Perreault, Artturi Lehkonen, Paul Byron and Brett Kulak all set to become free agents in the offseason.

The Canadiens prospect system is not in great shape either. Hockey Prospecting has the Habs prospect strength ranked 21st in the NHL with 1.44 expected stars and 9.63 expected NHLers in the system. Most of that star potential is in Cole Caufield and Alexander Romanov who have been playing at the NHL level but are still considered as developing based on number of NHL games played. The Habs look like they have some additional depth players percolating, but they could use a few more high end prospects.

Objective

Status:

Contending

Re-tooling

Re-building

Re-stocking

Target Contention Window:

Starting 2025-2026

Comments:

Owner Geoff Molson stated he wasn’t afraid of a rebuild after demolishing the front office last weekend. Given the Canadiens difficult cap situation and limited prospect pool, it looks like the best course of action. It starts with offloading veterans to re-stock the prospect cupboards and start re-building around a new core centered around Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Alex Romanov. Poor value contracts don’t necessarily need to be dumped immediately, but the goal should be to be rid of them by the start of the target contention window.

Target 2025/26 Lineup

The Habs have a few pieces in place that they can start to build around, but there are a lot of holes to fill. Targeting the 25/26 season to open a contention window would put Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Alex Romanov at the front end of their peak years. Players drafted over the next 1-2 years will be in their early 20s at the start of the window, with room to grow. The young core can be supplemented with veterans to complement the young players as the window gets closer. A few of those veterans may be with the Habs already, but all options are on the table at this point with the goal of establishing the new core over the next couple of seasons.

Top Priorities

Acquire additional 1st and 2nd round draft picks for the 2022 and 2023 drafts. Not every pick is going to hit and having more opportunities to add young players that can join the core in 3-4 years is key. The Canadiens currently have one pick in each of the first two round for each of these two drafts. Obviously, trading veteran players to contending teams is the most obvious strategy.

Sign Alexander Romanov to a bridge deal. This keeps his cap hit lower over the next few years, providing additional flexibility to eat other teams’ bad contracts to gain additional assets. My model projects Romanov as a top pair defender, but he is underperforming this season’s projected impact and the bridge deal mitigates the risk that he develops more slowly than the current projection.

Trade Jonathan Drouin before his contract expires a the end of the 22/23 season. Drouin is 26 this season and is off to a hot start offensively. He’ll be 30 at the start of the target contention window and the plan is to replace him with a younger player by then. If he continues his strong offensive play this season, his trade value may be highest now while he still has one year left before hitting unrestricted free agency.

Look for trade opportunities to flip a player in their prime for a player a few years younger with potential, along with possibly an additional pick or prospect. Many of the Canadiens current core will be in their early 30s at the start of the target contention and acquiring a player even a couple of years younger will put them in their prime years as the window opens.

Look for a trading partner that is interested in adding Carey Price. Price has been a huge part of the Habs franchise over the past 15 seasons and it’s time to start a new chapter. He’ll be 38 and in the final year of his contract at the start of the target window. Look for a deal that can give Price an opportunity to play for a cup and acquire some assets that help the re-build plan in the process.