In the Season Performance Report, we’ll look at the performance of one team for the current season considering both team level results and individual player impacts. The results will provide a picture how the current team is performing relative to the league and relative to expectations, providing a key input for an Armchair GM Plan. Let’s take a look at the Montreal Canadiens season so far.
Regular Season Record
Record: 6-16-2 (14 Pts), 7th in the Atlantic
Current Projected P%: 0.492 (81 Pts), 6th in the Atlantic
Season Opening Projected P%: 0.564 (92 Pts), 5th in the Atlantic
Team Performance
The Canadiens have struggled mightily through the first quarter of the season. They lost some key pieces from last year’s run to the Stanley Cup Final in the offseason, but their poor results have been deeper than that. Their current roster isn’t performing to the level that it was projected to due to poor numbers in nearly every key category. The model projected a slightly above average 5v5 offense alongside a strong 5v5 defense. Their actual results haven’t been near that, with both their 5v5 offense and 5v5 defense ranked in the bottom third of the league. Special teams have also been an issue, with both powerplay and penalty kill results near the bottom of the league.
Even Strength Offense
The Canadiens 5v5 offense was projected to be slightly below the league average, with projected 5v5 GF/60 of 2.44. Through 24 games, the Habs have only managed 1.91 GF/60 at 5v5. They are generating 2.22 xGF/60, showing that they have struggled to generate scoring chances. They are also snakebitten, shooting 6.42% as a team at 5v5 which is in the bottom five in the NHL.
The Canadiens offensive struggles have been headlined by some of their key forwards. Brendan Gallagher has the highest projected 5v5 goals rate in the NHL coming into the season, yet he is still looking for his first 5v5 goal as the calendar turns to December. Tyler Toffoli and Cole Caufield have also struggled mightily through the opening quarter of the season. The Habs are also not getting much offensive support from their defensemen, where only Chris Wideman and Brett Kulak are performing near projected offensive rates.
There are a few bright spots, however, including strong offensive performance from Jonathan Drouin as he returned to the Canadiens lineup this season. Nick Suzuki has also been finding the scoresheet, with his offensive numbers sitting near his projected results.
Even Strength Defense
The model projections for the Canadiens defense suggested that they could be relatively successful despite their mediocre projected offense. They were projected to be well above average defensively (2.16 5v5 xGA/60) and slightly better than average goaltending leading to a projected 5v5 GA/60 of 2.37. So far, their team defense has been significantly worse than projected with 5v5 xGA/60 of 2.41. Despite missing Carey Price for the entire season to date, goaltending has held together reasonably well, with actual GA/60 of 2.53 slightly higher than the expected rate.
The defense corps has struggled through the early season. The loss of Shea Weber to a potentially career ending injury certainly hurt and the defense has simply not been good enough. With Joel Edmundson also unavailable to start the season, the Canadiens needed Jeff Petry and Ben Chairot to step up and lead the defense corps. They have both struggled relative to projected on-ice xGA/60 so far. David Savard, signed as a free agent in the summer, has also struggled defensively with an on-ice xGA/60 above the 75th percentile. Chris Wideman and Brett Kulak have been the bright spots defensively, with both sitting below the 25th percentile in 5v5 on-ice xGA/60. Joel Edmundson has yet to play a game this season, although he is practicing with the team. He has a strong projected defensive impact and experience in the top 4 and his return can’t come soon enough to help the Habs improve defensively.
There are a few forwards with strong 5v5 defensive impacts, including Artturi Lehkonen and Tyler Toffoli. A number of Montreal’s top forwards need to be better defensively however. Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin, Josh Anderson and Christian Dvorak have the highest on-ice 5v5 xGA/60 among Habs forwards. With only Drouin producing near expected levels so far, the top two lines are struggling to tread water at even strength.
Even Strength Goaltending
With Carey Price away from the team to start the season, Jake Allen was handed the reigns as the starter. Allen’s projected impact is a starting goaltender, however it left the Habs with an unproven NHL backup. They picked up Sam Montembault on waivers to perform backup duties and the duo has held the fort reasonably well. Both goaltenders have generally played well and given the Canadiens a chance on most nights.
Player Usage
After the front office overhaul last weekend, coaching will most certainly be scrutinized going forward and it does appear that the Canadiens could do a better job of deploying their skaters. A few of the projected team leaders continue to see higher ice time despite struggling through 24 games. While the coaching staff may simply be trying to give them opportunity to get going, there are a few players who look like they could benefit the team with some additional ice time based on their performance to date. Brett Kulak and Chris Wideman are the only two defensemen we saw performing at expected levels, both offensively and defensively, yet both are starved for ice time. Artturi Lehkonen is in a similar position among forwards. He has the top 5v5 P/60 and top 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 among Habs forwards, yet has seen very limited 5v5 ice time.
Special Teams
The Canadiens have struggled on the powerplay. They rank in the bottom five in the NHL in 5v4 GF/60 at 4.31. Poor percentage luck may be partially to blame, since they rank in the low 20s in xGF/60, however they still aren’t generating enough.
The Habs penalty kill has been dreadful so far as well, where they are ranked 31st in the league with a 4v5 GA/60 of 12.61. Unlike even strength, goaltending has been an issue here as the Canadiens rank 12 spots higher in 4v5 xGA/60.
Injuries
Injuries have certainly contributed to Montreal’s early season struggles, with some key players missing significant time. Carey Price has missed the entire season so far as he left the team to enter the NHL’s player assistance program, leaving Jake Allen to tend net with a less proven backup. Joel Edmundson and Paul Byron have also yet to play a game this season. Edmundson’s projected impact is a 2nd pair defenseman and Byron’s is a top six forward. Jonathan Drouin, Mike Hoffman, Mathieu Perreault, and Cedric Paquette have all missed stretches of at least five games.
Top Performers
Underperformers
More Plots and Analysis
Additional plots dissecting the Canadiens season performance can be found on the team page, along with plots focused on roster construction. Subscribe to the blog to catch the next post where we’ll put it all together to lay out an Armchair GM Plan for the Habs.
