Yesterday, I checked in on Jesperi Kotkaniemi in Carolina after the Hurricanes acquired him via offer sheet in the offseason. Montreal’s decision not to match the offer sheet spawned a trade with the Arizona Coyotes as the Habs looked to fill the hole left in their forward group. Today, I’m checking in on the trade that brought Christian Dvorak to Montreal.
The Trade
Date: September 4, 2021
To Montreal Canadiens:
- Christian Dvorak (4 years remaining @ $4.45M cap hit, M-NTC final 2 seasons, UFA on expiry, age 25)
To Arizona Coyotes:
- 2022 1st Round Pick (The better of Montreal/Carolina’s 2022 1st round pick BUT if either or both are top 10 picks then Montreal will instead transfer to Arizona the worse of Montreal/Carolina’s 2022 1st round pick.)
- 2024 2nd Round Pick
Projections:
The Canadiens acquired Christain Dvorak from the Coyotes in what seemed like a desperation move after deciding not to match Carolina’s offer sheet for Jesperi Kotkaniemi. At age 25, Dvorak is at the early end of his peak years and has a projected impact for the 21/22 season of a fourth line forward. While there may still be room for some development, it’s likely that Dvorak is near his peak impact and will likely top out with a bottom six forward impact. His value comes in at about $1.95M for 21/22 based on his projected impact, which makes his $4.45M cap hit a very inefficient use of cap space.
2021-2022 Performance
Montreal Canadiens – Christian Dvorak
Dvorak has performed near the model projections offensively to start his first season in Montreal. His 5v5 G/60 is significantly better than projected, buoyed a bit by an 11% shooting percentage. It’s on the high side based on his historical shooting percentages but is just slightly above the 10% he had in two of the previous four seasons so his current goal scoring pace looks relatively sustainable. He’s been picking up primary assists near the projected rate as well and his overall 5v5 on-ice GF/60 slightly below the league median. Defensively, it’s been a different story with Dvorak’s 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 sitting above the 75th percentile, well above his projected impact. Dvorak is getting prime opportunity on the powerplay, however only has 2 assists to show for it in 54 minutes of powerplay time. He has also been a key penalty killing forward for the Habs who have a relatively average penalty kill so far this season.
Arizona Coyotes – 2022 1st Round Pick (MTL/CAR)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet. Currently, Montreal’s pick looks likely to be in the top 10 which would make it Carolina’s pick that goes to Arizona.
Arizona Coyotes – 2024 2nd Round Pick (MTL)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
The Verdict
The Canadiens filled a hole in their forward group with this trade, but it came at a steep price as they gave up a 1st round pick in the process. Dvorak was projected to have a fourth line forward impact this season and has performed below projections so far, primarily due to poor defensive impact. With Montreal following up their run to the Stanley Cup Finals last season with one of their worst starts ever, the early edge in this trade goes to the Coyotes.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
