With Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin’s contract up at the end of the season and reports surfacing that Montreal Canadiens Assistant GM Scott Mellanby resigned on Saturday after being notified that he would not be considered for a promotion, the winds of change seem to stirring in Montreal. This week, I’ll be checking in on some of the key moves the Canadiens made (or didn’t make) in the 2021 offseason leading up to an Armchair GM post for the Habs. I’ve already taken a look at one key UFA that left town last summer in Phillip Danault. Today, I’m checking in on another newsworthy offseason loss for the Habs. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a Hurricane this season after signing an offer sheet that the Canadiens declined to match.
The Contract
Date: August 28, 2021
Signed by Carolina Hurricanes:
- Jesperi Kotkaniemi (age 21): 1 year, $6.1M cap hit
Projected Value:
When we look into Kotkaniemi’s projected impact for the 21/22 season, it’s easy to see why the Canadiens didn’t match the Hurricanes offer sheet. Kotkaniemi’s projected value for the 21/22 season based on 5v5 impact is a lower-end second line forward and the $6.1M cap hit is certainly an overpay. At league median impact per $1M, Kotkaniemi’s value for the 21/22 season would only be $3.7M. With the Habs up against the cap late in the offseason, there would certainly have been some ripple effects if they had matched.
The Hurricanes, on the other hand, had the cap space available and put together an offer that they knew put Montreal in a difficult position. Kotkaniemi is just 21, and his long term projection looks like he could still develop into a top line player. With the minimum qualifying offer for the Canes to keep his RFA rights next summer now at $6.1M, it will be interesting to see how the Hurricanes proceed with Kotkaniemi.
2021-2022 Performance
Carolina Hurricanes – Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Through 19 games with the Hurricanes, Kotkaniemi’s impact has been relatively close to his projection. Defensively, his on-ice 5v5 xGA/60 sits slightly above projected but is still under the league median. Offensively, his 5v5 primary assist rate is non-existent but he’s made up for it with 5v5 goal rate much higher than projected. His 5v5 G/60 rate sits within the top 25% of forwards with at least 100 min played at 5v5. His shooting percentage sits at 22%, which is likely to regress over the course of the season so we can expect his goals rate to drop over a larger sample. Getting on the board with some primary assists would be a good sign for the Canes and could keep his offensive impact stable if his goal scoring hits a cold spell. Kotkaniemi has also seen 24 minutes of action on the powerplay, where he has picked up one assist.
Team Performance – Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have been one of the best teams in the NHL through the first quarter of the season, performing well above their team projection from the model. The biggest reason has been goaltending performing much better than expected. Carolina’s forward depth is a strength and Kotkaniemi chipping in in the bottom six is a sign of that depth.
The Verdict
The early returns look close the projected impacts for Kotkaniemi, although his 5v5 goals to assists ratio is skewed heavily toward goal scoring so far this season. If the Hurricanes objective was to scoop an RFA from the Canadiens after the Sebastian Aho offer sheet two years prior, then it’s mission accomplished. If they were simply using the tools available to add a young forward with top line potential, then we’ll have to wait and see.
We’re only at quarter mark of the season and Kotkaniemi minimum qualifying offer makes his next deal intriguing, so there’s plenty of time for the results of this signing to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, armchair GM plans and other updates from around the NHL.
