Phillip Danault was already one of the top unrestricted free agents available heading into the 2021 offseason before his stock rose further with his performance in the Canadiens unlikely playoff run to the cup finals. With the prospect cupboards stocked, the Los Angeles Kings landed Danault as they started looking to turn the corner on their re-build.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by Los Angeles Kings:
- Phillip Danault (age 28): 6 year, $5.5M cap hit, M-NTC – 10 team no trade list)
2021-2022 Performance
Los Angeles Kings – Phillip Danault
Phillip Danault’s shutdown ability was on full display in the playoffs last season as he helped propel the Canadiens to the Stanley Cup Final. His offensive impact is also strong and his two-way game leaves him with a projected impact well above the benchmark cut-off for a top line forward for the next five season. The Kings were able to sign him to an excellent value contract as well. Based on his projected impact for the 21/22 season, his projected value is above his cap hit $6.2M. Considering the value calculation is based only on 5v5 play and Danault is likely to feature on special teams, it’s even better value than these numbers show. While Danault’s impact is likely to decline over the full lenght of the deal, it looks like a reasonable contract even in the last couple of seasons.
Danault is off to a decent start offensively with the Kings at the quarter mark of the 21/22 season. His offensive impact has been near the projection. His 5v5 G/60 is above the projection with signs that it is sustainable. He’s shooting 8.33% at 5v5, which is in a sustainable range and inline with his historical shooting percentages. Primary assists have been harder come by, with his 5v5 A1/60 sitting well below his projection but still at the league median.
Defensively, Danault is not off to as strong a start. His projected 5v5 xGA/60 is well below his actual results, which sit above the 75th percentile among NHL forwards. It doesn’t appear to be a team effect, as Danault sits 11th among Kings forwards in 5v5 xGA/60. The Kings would benefit from Danault finding his defensive form that he showed last postseason.
Danault has also featured on special teams for the Kings this season. He has 1 assist in 34 minutes of powerplay time and has 28 minutes on the PK.
Team Performance – Los Angeles Kings
The Kings have performed fairly close to the model projection through 19 games this season. The model projected a point percentage of 0.519, while the Kings sit with a 0.500 P%. Their offense has struggled to convert on expected goals, which may be a factor in Danault’s low primary assist rate. Defensively, the Kings are slightly worse than the projection for 5v5 xGA/60 but have been saved by strong goaltending. Improvement from Danault on the defensive side would certainly help the Kings improve overall defensively.
The Verdict
Based on the early returns, the Kings are getting moderate value from the Phillip Danault signing. The contract looked like excellent value when it was signed, however Danault’s performance to start the 21/22 season has been a bit below the projection which erodes that value somewhat. Offensively, he’s been right where expected but his defensive impact through 19 games hasn’t been as strong as expected. If Danault can regain the defensive prowess he showed in last year’s postseason, this could still be a fantastic deal for the Kings.
We’re only at quarter mark of season one for a six year deal, so there ‘s plenty of time for the results of this signing to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, and other updates from around the NHL.
