With the Vancouver Canucks currently in disarray, I decided to check in on one of the biggest trades from the past offseason. The Vancouver Canucks acquired Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Arizona for a package of players and picks in what was clearly a move to win this season. Let’s take a look at the early returns on the deal.
The Trade
Date: July 23, 2021
To Vancouver Canucks:
- Conor Garland (RFA, age 25)
- Oliver Ekman Larsson (6 years remaining @ $8.25M cap hit, $900k retained by ARI, age 30)
To Arizona Coyotes:
- Loui Eriksson (1 years remaining @ $6M cap hit, age 36)
- Jay Beagle (1 years remaining @ $3M cap hitage 35)
- Antoine Roussel (1 years remaining @ $3M cap hitage 31)
- 2021 1st Round Pick (VAN-#9)
- 2022 2nd Round Pick (VAN)
- 2023 7th Round Pick (VAN)
2021-2022 Performance
Vancouver Canucks
Conor Garland
Conor Garland was the prized asset in this trade. After reportedly being on the block for roughly a full year, Garland was finally moved by Arizona and the Canucks landed a talented forward. Garland is in his prime and his projected impact for the 21/22 season is a first line forward. The Canucks signed him to a 5 year, $4.95M cap hit deal after the trade which looks like fair value based on his projected impact. Through 17 games in Vancouver, Garland has been as advertised, putting up slightly better than projected offensive and defensive impacts at 5v5. Garland has also seen time on the powerplay, but has only picked up one assist with the man advantage.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
The Canucks offloaded some of their own poor value contracts in the trade, but also gained a big one with Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson’s projected impact for the 21/22 season is a third pair defenseman and, even with the salary retained by Arizona, his value is barely a quarter of his cap hit. Offensively, he hasn’t contributed much at 5v5 as he has yet to record a primary point, although his on-ice GF/60 is is not far below projected. Defensively, he’s been better than projected with an on-ice xGA/60 near the 25th percentile for defensemen with at least 100 minutes played at 5v5 this season. Ekman-Larsson has also been utilized on both the powerplay and penalty kill. He has one powerplay goal this season and he features prominently on a Canucks penalty kill that has the highest 4v5 GA/60 in the NHL.
Arizona Coyotes
Loui Eriksson
The Coyotes made a habit of taking on other teams poor value contracts in exchange for draft picks this past offseason and Louis Eriksson headlines that category in this trade. His comes with a cap hit of $6M, yet has a projected impact for 21/22 that is less than a fourth line forward. Early season results haven’t been stellar as he still searches his first 5v5 primary point and has offensive and defensive impacts that are much worse than projected. He’s seen spot duty on both powerplay and penalty kill, but not enough to have a significant impact.
Jay Beagle
Jay Beagle has the worst projection for the 21/22 season out of the three players that headed to the desert. Early season results show the same. Beagle is still searching for a point at 5v5 and has a very low 5v5 on-ice GF/60. His defensive impact has been better than expected, but his 5v5 xGA/60 still sits above the league median. He’s also been utilized on the penalty kill, where the Coyotes are only slightly better than the league worst Canucks.
Antoine Roussel
Antoine Roussel has the best projected impact out of the players acquired by the Coyotes, but it’s still just a fourth line forward. Roussel has hit the scoresheet at 5v5, however his on-ice GF/60 is in the cellar. His defensive impact has also been much worse than projected. Similar to Beagle, Roussel has featured on the Coyotes less than stellar penalty kill.
2021 1st Round Pick (VAN – 9th)
The Coyotes picked forward Dylan Guenther with the 2021 1st pick acquired from Vancouver. Guenther is currently playing for the Edmonton Oil Kings in the WHL and has 19 points in 16 games played this season. He likes like a good bet to become a key piece for the Coyotes down the road, as Hockey Prospecting has him projected with a 76% NHLer probability and a 68% Star probability.
2022 2nd Round Pick (VAN)
A future asset.
2023 7th Round Pick (VAN)
A future asset.
The Verdict
It’s much too early to declare a winning in this trade, but I’m giving the edge to the Coyotes based on the early returns. Garland has been as advertised for the Canucks, but the long term implications of the Ekman-Larsson deal are concerning. Despite decent showings from Garland and OEL in the early season, the Canucks have crashed and burned with their win now approach in the early season and look like a serious long shot to make the playoffs after just 17 games. The Coyotes haven’t gotten much from the players they acquired, but they offloaded OEL’s contract for three expiring deals, picked up some future assets that fit with a clear rebuilding plan, and look like they made a good pick the 1st round pick they acquired.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
