As the Edmonton Oilers looked to improve their forward depth this offseason, a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes materialized that saw the Oilers acquire Warren Foegele from the Hurricanes, while Ethan Bear headed to Raleigh. With less than 15 games played with their new teams, let’s take a much too early look at the trade returns for both teams.
The Trade
Date: July 28, 2021
To Carolina Hurricanes:
- Ethan Bear (1 year remaining @ $2M cap hit, RFA on expiry, age 24)
To Edmonton Oilers:
- Warren Foegele (RFA, age 25)
2021-2022 Performance
Carolina Hurricanes – Ethan Bear
The Carolina Hurricanes clearly saw something they liked in Ethan Bear’s game. His $2M cap hit is a bargain for his projected impact and, while he seemed stuck down the depth chart in Edmonton, Bear has become a fixture alongside Jaccob Slavin on the Hurricanes’ top pair since arriving in Carolina. Defensively, he’s been exactly as advertised. His 5v5 expected goals against rate is one of the best on the team and sits well below the league median. Early returns offensively have been better than expected, as he outperforms his projected 5v5 on-ice GF/60 significantly. Bear has also been a fixture on the penalty kill, helping the Hurricanes off to a good start shorthanded where they rank 11th in the league in both 4v5 xGA/60 and 4v5 GA/60.
Edmonton Oilers – Warren Foegele
Adding Warren Foegele was one of a handful of offseason moves the Edmonton Oilers made to shore up their forward depth. The Oilers signed Foegele to a 3 year, $2.75M cap hit deal following the trade which is reasonable value for his projected impact. Foegele’s 5v5 offensive impact has come slightly better than advertised through 14 games played, primarily due to a primary assist rate. However, his defensive impact has not been good so far. The Oilers bottom six has continued to get caved regularly this season and Foegele’s poor 5v5 xGA/60 has been a part of it. Foegele hasn’t been used regularly on special teams so far this season.
The Verdict
Based on the early returns, the Hurricanes have a wide edge in the outcome of this trade. Not only does Ethan Bear come with an excellent value contract, he has stepped onto the top pair and outperformed his projected impact early in the season. The Oilers desperately need Foegele’s defensive impact to improve to help their bottom six tread water in order for this trade to get closer to even.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
