While it’s much too early to hand out final verdicts, I thought it would be fun to check in on the early returns for some of the offseason’s more significant moves. First up, the trade that sent Pavel Buchnevich to St Louis and Sammy Blais to the Rangers.
The Trade
Date: July 24, 2021
To New York Rangers:
- Sammy Blais (1 year remaining @ $1.5M cap hit, age 25)
- 2022 2nd Round Pick
To St Louis Blues:
- Pavel Buchnevich (RFA, age 26)
2021-2022 Performance
New York Rangers – Sammy Blais
Bringing in Sammy Blais was part of the New York Rangers offseason attempt to become a grittier team. While Blais has a lower projected impact for this season than the departed Pavel Buchnevich, he brings a heavier style of game. His projected impact for the 21/22 season is a third line forward and the $1.5M cap hit is quite reasonable for his impact.
Through 12 games, Blais’ offensive impact has been near his projection. He is still looking for his first 5v5 goal of the season, but he’s picked up enough primary assists to balance out the lack of scoring. Defensively, his impact has been worse than projected and somewhat of a liability as he currently sits above the 75th percentile for forwards with over 100 minutes played at 5v5. Blais has seen limited time on the powerplay, with no points to show for it so far.
New York Rangers – 2022 2nd Round Pick
A future asset.
St Louis Blues – Pavel Buchnevich
The Blues added a top line forward in Pavel Buchnevich and signed him to a 4 year deal with a $5.8M cap hit. The cap hit is good value based on Buchnevich’s projected impact and he will only be 30 when the contract is up so there isn’t a large risk of declining value.
Buchnevich has impressed in his first 10 games with the Blues. He’s contributed offensively near his projected 5v5 rates, including a 5v5 goals/60 that is near the 75th percentile among forward with at least 100 minutes at 5v5. Defensively, he’s been sound as well with 5v5 on-ice expected goals against trending below his projection. Buchnevich has also factored in on special teams, picking up one powerplay goal so far and contributing to the Blues strong penalty killing results through the early part of the season.
The Verdict
While 10 games into the new season is much too early to make a final call on this trade, the St Louis Blues get the early edge. St Louis got the better player in the trade and Buchnevich is performing to expectations early in the 21/22 season. Despite holding a decent record early in the season, the Rangers are struggling to find even strength offense this season and it’s fair to wonder if that would be different had they held on to Buchnevich.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
