The defending Stanley Cup champions got off to a bit of a slow start, but they seem to have found their game and now sit in a tie for third in the Atlantic Division after their first 11 games. Are the Lightning poised for a serious bid for a three-peat? Let’s take a look at their early season results to see how their season is shaping up.
Grades
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Record
After a slow start, the Lightning have a 4-0-1 record in their last five games to bring their point percentage above their projected strength. They have put themselves in a position to fight for the top seed and their full season projection currently sits in a tight group with the Panthers, Bruins and Maple Leafs.
Even Strength Offense
The Lightning have been known for their offensive prowess over the past few seasons, but we are yet to see it consistently this season. The Bolts sit 17th in the league for 5v5 goals for rate, which is right in line with their expected goals rate. Their projected goals for rate is somewhat higher and the Lightning will need to find a way to get their offense in gear as the season goes on.
Alex Killorn has led the offense so far, outperforming his projected point rate significantly. The rest of the Lightning forwards are near or below their projected point rates. Brayden Point is off to a very slow start by his standards and the Lightning are also missing Nikita Kucherov. The defensemen have chipped in offensively and are generally performing near their projected point rates. Victor Hedman is the exception, as his point production is well below his projection.
Even Strength Defense
The Lightning’s even strength defense has been stout so far this season, ranking 6th in the league for 5v5 expected goals against rate. They could stand to get a few more saves, with their actual goals against rate ranking 19th.
The strong start defensively has been a complete team effort. Anthony Cirelli leads the forward group in on-ice xGA/60, while Brayden Point has been strong as well despite his slow start offensively. Even the forwards with the highest xGA/60 on the team sit near the league median. The story is similar for defensemen, with shutdown pair Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonaugh leading the way and Jan Rutta the only defenseman above the league median.
In goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy is off to a decent start. The Bolts overall defensive numbers have been hurt by backup Brian Elliott’s poor GSAx/60, which is the primary cause of the gap between team xGA/60 and GA/60 thus far.
Powerplay
The Lightning powerplay has been afflicted by some poor percentage luck in the first few games of the season. They sit in the middle third of the league for 5v4 xGF/60, yet only sit 25th in 5v4 GF/60. The Bolts are no doubt missing Nikita Kucherov on the powerplay, but there are signs that the powerplay will likely trend upward over a larger sample even with Kucherov on the shelf.
Penalty Kill
The penalty kill has been a strength thus far for the Lightning. Sitting in the top 5 for both 4v5 xGA/60 and 4v5 GA/60, things have been going well for the Lightning when shorthanded.
Lineup Notes
The Lightning lost superstar Nikita Kucherov to a lower body injury just 3 games into the season. He’s expected to be out 8-10 weeks following surgery. The Lightning’s offensive strength is certainly diminished with Kucherov out of the lineup but they have plenty of other players capable of contributing. The Lightning are also currently without defenseman Zach Bogosian, who went down in the Lightning’s season opener. The loss of Bogosian has allowed Cal Foote to get into the lineup since returning from his injury.
Up Next
- vs CAR
- vs FLA
- vs NYI
- @ PHI
- vs NJD
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Lightning and the rest of the Atlantic Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Lightning and from around the league throughout the season.
