The Montreal Canadiens have struggled mightily to start the 2021-2022 season. After a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals last spring, the Habs lost a number of key players over the offseason. What’s gone wrong? Is there reason to believe they can turn things around and salvage the season? Let’s take a look.
Grades
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Record
After their trip to the Stanley Cup Final last season, the Canadiens start to the 2021-2022 season can only be classified as a disaster. With just 2 wins in their first nine games, they sit dead last in the Eastern Conference. With 9 games played, the sample size is getting large enough to cause some concern. With their poor start, the Habs full season projection has taken a big hit as well. Even if they play to their projected strength the rest of the way, they look like they’ll be outside the playoff picture. At this point, it looks more likely that they’ll be running with the Senators and Sabres at the bottom of the division.
Even Strength Offense
The Canadiens even strength offense has been a big part of their early season struggles as they sit 27th in 5v5 GF/60. The bigger concern is that it doesn’t seem to be a case of bad luck since they are 28th in 5v5 xGF/60. The Habs simply aren’t creating enough chances. Jonathan Drouin has been a bright spot in his return to the lineup, outperforming his projected offensive output, and Nick Suzuki has performed as expected. The Habs need more from their other big names in the forward group. Brendan Gallagher, Cole Caufield and Tyler Toffoli haven’t produced anywhere near their projected levels so far and the Canadiens need them to find their games.
Even Strength Defense
The bright spot in the Canadiens’ early season performance has been their even strength defense. They have performed better than projected in xGA/60 and GA/60. While the top line (aside from Suzuki) has struggled to find offense, we see Suzuki, Caufield and Toffoli among the top 5 forwards for best on-ice xGA/60. On defense, it’s youngsters at either end of the spectum. Sami Niku has the best on-ice xGA/60, while Alex Romanov has the highest.
After losing Carey Price indefinitely at the start of the season, Jake Allen was thrust into the starter’s role and Sam Montembeault was picked up off waivers, becoming the backup. Both have performed near their projections.
Powerplay
The Canadiens powerplay has been afflicted by the same issue as their even strength offense. The sit 24th in expected goals rate at 5v4. Conversion has also been an issue, with their actual goals for rate sitting 28th. The Habs need to generate more chances and start converting the chances they do get.
Penalty Kill
The Habs penalty kill has not been nearly as effective as their even strength defense. Their goals against rate at 4v5 sits 30th in the league and they’ve allowed expected goals at a rate that sits 26th league wide.
Lineup Notes
The Canadiens have been hit with a number player absences early in the season. Mike Hoffman has returned from an injury sustained in the preseason, but Habs are still without Carey Price, Joel Edmundson, Paul Byron and Jake Evans. With Edmundson out, the Habs’ defensive depth has taken a hit. While Jake Allen is a capable goaltender, their goaltending tandem is significantly weaker with the loss of Price. Missing some key players may be part of the reason for the Canadiens slow start, however, it’s not enough to completely explain their stumble out of the gate.
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Canadiens and the rest of the Atlantic Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Canadiens and from around the league throughout the season.
